Agricultural exports would have lost almost US$300 million

So far this year, Peruvian agro-exports have lost around US$300 million as a result of the persistent social unrest in the country, and this figure could increase due to Cyclone Yaku, which affects almost 20 regions, and an eventual phenomenon of coastal childaccording to Gabriel Amaro, executive director of the Association of Agricultural Producers Guilds of Peru (Agap).

“(The losses) could increase because we are entering the season for citrus, asparagus, Hass avocado, pomegranate, onion and other export products,” commented Amaro to The Republic.

However, he stressed that the cyclone currently affects family farming more strongly. Until now, it would have affected between 2,000 and 3,000 hectares of crops such as rice and takeaway bread products.

reality and expectations

The rains are a common phenomenon at this time in the interior of the country; However, this year they have intensified due to the presence of Cyclone Yaku, says Edgar Vásquez Vela, director of the Center for Research on Global Economy and Business (CIEN-ADEX). “If this situation lasts longer, we could evaluate a circumstance affecting exports,” he mentions.

In fact, ADEX forecasts that this year the agro-export sector will grow around 8.4% and reach US$9.24 billion. This is driven by the resilience that the sector has shown in times of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the variety of its offer and the diversity of its markets.

However, despite its strengths, in January agricultural exports closed in the red and reached close to US$887,855,000, which meant a drop of -2.59%, compared to the same month last year, according to ADEX data.

In detail, non-traditional agricultural exports totaled around US$823,576,000, which meant a year-on-year drop of -6.71%. Fresh grapes were the most important product, and although it fell by 0.86%, it added more than US$ 335,082,200.

Meanwhile, traditional agricultural exports fell almost 55% and reached US$64,278,348 million. Coffee (-55.5%) and cane sugar (-32.4%) were the main foods dispatched in this segment, reaching US$58,935,356 and US$3,264,899, respectively.

Export will slow down

On the other hand, total Peruvian exports, after having advanced 3.7% last year, will slow down and grow only 2.8% during 2023. However, they will reach the record figure of US$64,941 million driven by the positive performance, that is expected, will have the economies of countries like China and the United States, as well as by the recovery of the prices of raw materials, but conditioned by the local socio-political situation, says ADEX.

Traditional exports will grow 0.9% and reach a total of US$45,326 million and a participation of 69.8% of the total shipments abroad.

In this group, mining, with a growth of 0.6%, will be the most important sector with a participation of 55.8% and US$35,235 million. The industry follows hydrocarbons which will move US$6,221 million, that is, 1.1% more than in 2022.

For their part, non-traditional exports will grow 7.3% this year and will accumulate close to US$19,615 million.

Coastal child would affect 16.7% of GDP

An eventual phenomenon of the Coastal Child (FNC) would affect around 16.7% of the total GDP, which would affect a reduction in the growth rate of our economy by up to 0.4% in 2023, warned the Chamber of Commerce of Lima (CCL).

The most exposed regions would be Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque, La Libertad and Áncash, which also contribute 20% of formal employment and also have a level of poverty that reaches 1.5 million people.

The five regions contribute 25.5% of the national agricultural product, 14% of manufacturing, 16.4% of trade and 15.7% of transportation, details the CCL.

Fact

Endangered. The social upheaval that began in December of last year and is still continuing in some regions, to date has put around US$8,063 million in exports at risk; of which more than US$1.9 billion are in Lima, ADEX said.