The gross domestic product (GDP) for September registered an advance of 9.71%, while the annualized national production (12 months) reached 11.95%, according to information issued yesterday by the INEI.
In 2020, the drop in GDP was 11.12%, which is why experts consider that in the ninth month of 2021 the decline mentioned would have been overcome for the first time, Despite the fact that studies predicted a recovery only at the end of this year or the beginning of 2022. Added to this is the international scenario with a Chinese economy that has slowed down.
According to Juan Carlos Odar, director of Phase Consultores, the annualized production to September already slightly exceeded the national production of 2019, by half a percentage point, and if it is replicated in December it could be favorable for the GDP and be in line with the recent forecast projections of 13.2% for the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) and 12.5% for the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF).
“The 9.7% leads us to be the highest historical data, but we see that it is just equaling or marginally exceeding the average of what was the economic activity of 2019,” the economist told La República.
The expert explained that the growth expressed would have been stimulated throughout the third quarter by the delivery of bonds or the withdrawal of AFP, which boosted consumption, “especially in low sectors.”
“It is possible that we will be shown a fairly high growth rate of consumption in the last part of the year. That also explains the growth in September and the previous months, “he said.
It is important to mention that in December formal workers with salaries of up to S / 2,000 will receive an extraordinary bonus of S / 210.
Be cautious
The also economist Eduardo Recoba He suggested taking the data in stride, since it deals with technical rebounds. “2022 will be the base scenario year that we must attend and observe. That will allow us a more surgical reading of growth, because what we are seeing in 2021 is only a rebound ”, said the academic.
He said that it is urgent to accelerate levels of the real economy, such as formal and sustainable employment, not precarious. “The political environment is still toxic and the Executive does not show signs of governance, that more solid decisions are made; we need more private activity, ”said Recoba.
BBVA Research highlighted that with the September result, economic activity in comparison with the third quarter of 2019 (pre-health crisis situation) would have grown 1.7%, and that the available indicators suggest that the economy’s expansion trend it remains at the beginning of the fourth quarter. “However, the momentum seems to diminish, as suggested by the figures for electricity production and domestic cement consumption,” he warned.
Twenty regions increased exports
The Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism (Mincetur) announced that between January and September of this year regional exports (not counting Lima and Callao) totaled US $ 29,382 million.
Thus, 20 regions increased their shipments. Lambayeque (43%), Ayacucho (36%), Amazonas (34%), La Libertad (30%), Ancash (27%), Piura (19%), Moquegua (17%), Tumbes (12%), Junín ( 9%) and San Martín (8%), Huancavelica (114%), Ucayali (96%), Madre de Dios (93%), Apurímac (89%), Puno (83%), Loreto (79%), Ica (62%), Arequipa (56%), Tacna (49%) and Cusco (48%).
The word
Juan Carlos Odar, economist
“9.7% is the highest historical data, but we see that it is just equaling or marginally exceeding the average of what was the economic activity of 2019.”
Interannual GDP development and by sectors during September
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