Shock. Businesses expect to sell and produce less with the Dina Boluarte regime, according to a BCRP survey. Optimism deteriorated more than in the Castillo government.
During January of this year, the confidence of the companies continued to deteriorate and reached levels that even exceed those seen in the last month of the government of Peter Castillo, according to the Survey of macroeconomic expectations of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
in the short term It is expected that the economy, the business sector and its stability will continue in the pessimistic tranche (see infographic).
In detail, the companies consider that the current situation of their businesses, their sales, production and demand oscillate between 39 and 46 units (below 50 is pessimistic).
What is expected now?
Carlos Posada, institutional director of the Chamber of Commerce of Lima (CCL), alleges that “obviously” there is a more pessimistic scenario with the Government of Dina Boluarte, “Not because of it per se”, but because of the coup d’état (by Castillo) the citizens expected a firm reaction in this government of constitutional succession.
“We see that purchase orders are falling and inventory days have increased. That means there are no sales and, therefore, the economy slows down.” added.
Also, remember that the stoppages and blockades affect the natural performance of companies, by limiting their logistics and production capacity, which generates a vicious circle of damages that we all end up paying for.
“We have connectivity cut off on highways and airports, factories at risk of being burned. The operational situation of the country is worse than in November. The sales of the companies fall and with the lower demand due to the high prices generated by the company itself inflation and lack of supply, prices increase. Boluarte should not announce what will be done, but rather say what has been done so as not to back down from the pessimistic scenario”, he stated.
Despite the complicated outlook for these months, in the next twelve months, said uncertainty would reverse in almost all expectations regarding the characteristics of the market, in line with the BCRP data.
In that sense, from the trust —crucible of business activity in Peru— assert that it is urgent that all businessmen, from small to large, resume their productive work and thus be able to “farmers sell their milk, farmers harvest and to the world, take our minerals to the main markets.”
on the ledge
Hugo Perea, chief economist at BBVA Research, maintains that despite the latent uncertainty for a couple of months due to political pressures and social protests, the Peruvian economy is still passing “difficult stress tests” to avoid losing its reputation. against rating agencies such as Moody’s.
Thus, he recalled that we maintain the Baaa1 investment grade, and that Moody’s recently upgraded it from stable to negative should be interpreted as “an alert signal”. “The rating is fine, Peru does not have economic imbalances and maintains the credit ratio,” she said. Finally, he anticipated that a downward trend is being reviewed in the first quarter of this year.
They will launch new growth plans
Alex Contreras Miranda, head of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), said that new measures aimed at generating sustained growth will be announced next week.
From Ica, the official specified that It is a slogan of the Executive Branch “to move forward, work incessantly and closely, because we cannot make public policies from our desk”.
In addition, he assured that Con Punche Peru has already been 100% executed to reactivate the sectors and regions affected by the social conflict seen in recent months.
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