After growing 2.01% in October, during November 2022, the national production of Peru slowed down and only rose by 1.68% compared to the same month of the previous year, as reported by the INEI.
The result seen in the eleventh month of the year is explained by the good performance of sectors such as lodging and restaurants (8.17%), transportation, mail and courier services (7.51%), construction (6.83%), electricity, gas and water (5.65%) and mining and hydrocarbons (5.06%).
The good performance of mining and hydrocarbons is due to the high production of copper (14.6%), tin (9.1%), iron (6.2%) and zinc (1.2%); although the fall in molybdenum (-15.0%), silver (-10.2%), lead (-6.8%) and gold (-2.9%) was affected.
Likewise, in restaurants and lodging, the extension of opening hours and campaigns such as Black Friday and Cyber Days helped to continue leading overall growth.
Fishing in the doldrums
On the other hand, lower production was recorded in items such as fishing (-48.52%), manufacturing (-2.82%), telecommunications and other information services (-5.71%) and financial and insurance (-9.62%).
The economist and director of Phase Consultores, Juan Carlos Odar, warns that fishing it lies in a worrisome state and yet it is a subject “of which little has been said”.
“There is a drop of around 20% both in the accumulated to November and in the 12-month average. The sources remain for the debate, but the oil spill (caused by Repsol a year ago in Ventanilla) should not have been neutral, ”he detailed on Twitter.
cumulative GDP
The INEI specifies that, in the accumulated from January to November, the Peruvian economy rose 2.70% and since December 2021 —in year-on-year terms—, by 2.63%. It went down slightly.
In this line, Odar anticipates that this rate “opens the door” for the Peruvian economy to close the year with a growth of 2.5%, well below the estimates of the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Central Reserve Bank, considering the social conflict prolonged since December.
It is worth noting that for these institutions GDP would end 2022 at levels of 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively.
The data
Effect. Apart from the weak projected GDP growth, inflation – the highest since 1996 – is expected to begin to decline from the second quarter.
Source: Larepublica
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