Although the INEC population clock shows that we are already 18.2 million, there is talk of a probable downward adjustment

The population counter of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC) reported on January 10, 2023 that in the country we are 18’211,338 citizens. But hours before that same day it had been recorded that we were 17′876.729. This figure drew attention because seven months ago -on June 18, 2022- it had already been announced with joy that in Ecuador we were 18 million inhabitants.

On the inconsistency of the data, the executive director of the INEC, Roberto Castillo, indicated that the drop in the number of inhabitants in the first instance from 18 million to 17.8 million It was due to an error in the communication area “uploading an outdated file”. Instead, by placing the new figure of 18.2 million, the figure had been updated correctly.

The data from the population counter, however, has been clarified by the INEC They are only projections and not real data like those that will be obtained in May 2023 when the information from the 2022 census has already been processed, whose data collection is carried out between October 2022 and January 2023. The data that is currently displayed on the INEC website obeys a model created in 2010, in which They make the projections based on the behaviors found in that year.

However, he clarified that Over time, these assumptions, which have to do with the number of births, deaths, and even migratory behavior, lose validity. He explained, for example, that at that time -in 2010- the experts could not predict that there would be an earthquake as strong in which as many lives would be lost as the one in 2016 or they could not be clear about the pandemic that would generate a loss of lives in excess of 75,000. The important migratory movements of recent years could not be established either. In any case, he said that this data can be revised to create a new model, once the recent census data is available.

The abrupt variation of data was also observed by Byron Villacís, former director of the INEC related to correísmo and founder of the Latin American Observatory of Population Censuses (OLAC). That same January 10, he wrote on Twitter that “INEC has just eliminated the information on population projections, all in order to hide the failure of its coverage.” When asked about the reason for his doubts, he said that what is evident is that the results of the population clock have changed, which are in turn the result of population projections.

This occurs at a time when the INEC begins to have a discourse that focuses on housing results, but not on the population, says the former official. For Villacís, there is a relationship between these variations in the population clock and the low coverage that the 2022 census would have had. He maintains that according to the data that is handled within the INEC and that he has known, and based on a mathematical model that his organization developed, only 10 million inhabitants would have been registered in the census, Therefore, there is a very large gap to be able to complete the approximately 18 million people who, according to projections, already exist in the country. He commented that the 500,000 homes that the INEC says are still to be censused would not be enough to complete that figure.

For Villacís, it is not true that the projections were made only in 2010, but that they are updated each year in January, according to three variables: births, deaths and migration. He considers that although the data on births and deaths could have varied downward, but not with data that could mean a shock For the projections, the migration rate is surely not downward, but rather upward due to the effects of the arrival of Venezuelan citizens.

Instead, the director of the INEC, Roberto Castillo clarified that it is very likely that by 2023 the projection data will have to be adjusted downward. There are several reasons for this.

• There are fewer births, mainly because young people prefer to have children later or not at all.
• There were more deaths than had been estimated.
• migration behavior.

Meanwhile, this January 12, there was also a series of criticisms of the census from the Assembly. This about the political control carried out by the Citizen Participation Commission of the legislative body. Nathalie Viteri, PSC assembly member, told her own experience and commented that they never reached her home to perform the procedure. He said that when he tried to do it through the online census, the app didn’t work. He described the process as a “almost total failure”.

Diana Farinango, Pachakutik assembly member, criticized that the authorities do not agree on the cost figures of the census. He considers that the figures will not be reliable and requested that the INEC rectify the results in 2023.

In January, The INEC has the task of finishing the registration by carrying out the census in half a million homes that are still to be visited. These belong to sectors of high strata, others of difficult access and dangerous sectors. Once the data of the 6.7 million households that had to be registered, Starting in February, the analysis and processing of information will be carried out. This stage will have technical assistance from United Nations experts, such as the Population Fund and also institutions such as Cepal.

The first national results will be presented at the end of May. Information will be released until December. (YO)