Peru would lead growth in the region during 2023

The gross domestic product (GDP) of Peru it would grow between 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and would position itself as the economy with the best performance in the region, according to forecasts by Credicorp Capital and BBVA Research. For this year, both entities agree that the advance will not be greater than 3% (between 2.7 and 2.8%).

In 2023, the positive performance would also be registered in Latin American countries such as Colombia (1.3%), Mexico (1.2%), Brazil (0.9%) and Argentina (0.7%). This after the expectation that heto recession of the US is moderate and the situation of the Fed is finished normalizing, according to Credicorp.

However, uncertainty about a possible rise in the price of raw materials would still continue.being copper one of the goods with less variability in the market.

insufficient progress

The economist Armando Mendoza indicates that a growth rate that is around 2.0% or 2.5% is equivalent to zero progress in real terms, that is, it has no impact on the population’s living standards. “The consensus is that it is necessary to grow from 5% up (…) to have a significant reduction in poverty levelsincome levels and formal jobs”, he mentioned to La República.

Stable inflation in 2024

Inflation would close this year at 8.0% and slow down to 3.5% in 2023 and it would only reach the target range –between 1% and 3%– in the first quarter of 2024, according to BBVA Research.

According to the entity, inflation will probably show resistance to lowering in the short term, but from March 2023, and more clearly in the second half of that year, its decline will be noticeable.

Credicorp’s forecast is also very close to this figure, which estimates that inflation would close next year at 3.8%. This result would be below Colombia (7.9%), Mexico (4.9%), Brazil (4.9%) and Chile (4.0%).

Secondly, BBVA Research forecasts that the dollar exchange rate this year would close between S/3.85 and S/3.95; however, in 2023 it would have a rebound and would be between S/4.00 and S/4.10.

Projections of the Peruvian economy for 2023