New PIE report: Poland prepared for the lack of gas from Russia. EU countries in a difficult situation

At the end of April, Russia decided to stay in Poland. The reason was that the Polish companies refused to pay for the raw material in rubles – as it had demanded. Poland wanted to give up Russian gas anyway, but only at the end of the year. This decision was, in a way, accelerated, but Poland was prepared for it anyway.

The war in Ukraine. The EU has a problem with abandoning Russian gas

In addition to Poland, gas stopped flowing, incl. to or France. Deliveries in Italy were also reduced (by 15 percent, and then by 50 percent), Slovakia (by 50 percent) and (by 60 percent). Deliveries to Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands were also limited.

– Russia has once again demonstrated that, contrary to the opinion of the West, Putin is not a business partner, but an aggressor who does not comply with agreements and contracts. The scenario that analysts had warned against at the beginning of the war had materialized – Putin, without waiting for the West to agree on the embargo on Russian resources, started cutting off access to them himself, says Piotr Arak, director in a comment to the latest PIE report (public economic think tank .

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Gas. Poland was prepared to cut off from Russia

that Polish gas storage facilities are 97 percent full. In addition, our country already has a terminal and the Baltic Pipe pipeline is ready, which makes us one of the best prepared EU countries for the current situation.

– Bulgaria and Poland are the only two European countries whose contracts were to expire at the end of this year, which means that the search for alternative sources of supply in our country has long been advanced. The filling level of Polish warehouses is currently 97%, which covers the demand for two months in the absence of any supplies of this raw material – says Magdalena Maj, head of the climate and energy team at PIE.

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Gas. The European Union may have a problem with gas

However, not all countries are in such a good position as Poland. Full gas storage in the EU would suffice for two months of demand in winter and twice as much in summer – assuming no supply and production are whatsoever. Already, gas storage facilities in the EU are 53% full on average.

As assumed, the level of 80 percent. it should be reached in November, but it is already known today that it will be difficult. The European Union still uses gas pipelines from or Azerbaijan and LNG tankers. If the gas supplies via Nord Stream were to be completely suspended, the assumed level of filling the storage facilities would drop by another 20 percentage points.

The European Union must unite?

– It is extremely important today for EU countries to cooperate in order to ensure energy security and efficiently obtain gas from other sources. it must be ready for all possible scenarios, including a complete deprivation of gas from Russia, assesses Piotr Arak, director of the Polish Economic Institute.

This is to be possible, among others, by preliminary agreement concluded by EU countries. According to him, Member States that do not have warehouses will be able to use the stocks of other countries in an amount corresponding to 15 percent. their annual consumption.