Instead of gas “blood, sweat and tears”. This map shows why Europe is so difficult to unite over the embargo

If Russia expects this, Hungary will pay for Russian gas in rubles, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban announced on Wednesday. In turn, the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Budapest, Peter Szijjarto, stated that “the European Union does not play any role in the matter of Hungary’s agreement with Russia on gas supplies.” He added that the technical details of the payment are currently being worked out (the nearest one is at the end of May).

It is known – Viktor Orban is not only a brake on the EU sanctions against Russia, but more and more often gives the impression of Putin’s fifth column in Europe. But even so, and even if there were much more goodwill in Hungary, the case of this country is just one example that getting out of Putin’s gas leash is not easy.

Russia’s participation in gas imports in individual EU countries shows how difficult it is for the EU to unanimously decide on an embargo on Russian energy resources, which was called for by the European Parliament yesterday. Necessary alternatives and societies’ readiness for ‘blood, sweat and tears’

– comments economists from ING Bank Śląski and show a map of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. In many of the countries – not only those belonging to the EU, but also incl. Serbia or North Macedonia – Russian gas accounts for the vast majority of all imports of this raw material.

These are slightly older data, but also show the scale of ties with Russia under gas contracts. As noted by the economists of the Polish Economic Institute, among the EU countries importing gas, in 2019 three countries imported it directly only from Russia (the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Latvia). In other countries (Estonia, Hungary, Finland) this scale of addiction was also gigantic (approx. 95-99%).

In fact, out of the 27 EU countries, only seven did not import gas directly from Russia in 2019. These are Denmark, Cyprus, Ireland, Croatia, Malta, Austria and Sweden. This does not mean, however, that they were also free from Russian gas, because, for example, in Austria the share of gas from Putin – but re-exported by other Member States – amounted to over 60 percent.

Putin blackmails, von der Leyen reacts

The European Parliament on Thursday called for an immediate and complete embargo on gas and other gas imports from Russia. But Europe does not speak with one voice here, because for many countries giving up Russian gas is really – as ING economists put it – “blood, sweat and tears”. Despite the shocking reports of the genocide committed by Russians in Ukraine, some European governments must also look carefully at their own backyard.

It is not just about Hungary, although the matter there is so much more complicated that last year they joined a new long-term contract for gas supplies from Gazprom. Last Sunday, the Slovak economy minister Richard Sulik announced that the government would not take decisions that could jeopardize Russian gas supplies and that it would pay Russia for gas in rubles if necessary. Soon Bratislava started to soften its tone a bit, arguing that it would work hand in hand with the EU. Also, for example, the Austrian OMV informed that it had already contacted Gazprom regarding payments in rubles, although the government in Vienna stated that there were no grounds to change the settlement currency.

This is, of course, about Putin’s gas blackmail, who said at the end of March that EU countries should pay for gas in rubles. Although later in the decree of the Russian president it turned out that payments could continue to be made in foreign currencies, only to special sub-accounts in Gazprombank, the funds from which would then be converted into rubles, but this is a solution that benefits Moscow (it strengthens the currency, protects Gazprombank ahead of possible EU sanctions).

On Thursday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that Russian ruble payments would be considered as a circumvention of sanctions against Russia.

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The EC wants to cut imports from Russia by two-thirds in a year

Some EU countries have already announced they will give up Russian gas. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia stopped importing the raw material. Poland plans to end gas from Russia in 2022, because from 2023 the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline will gain full capacity and the raw material from Norway will be able to completely replace the Russian one.

According to the EU plan, by the end of the year the community is to reduce gas imports from Russia by two thirds.

According to economists from the Polish Economic Institute, it would be possible to reduce gas imports from Russia to the EU by even more than 90 percent. According to PIE, it would be possible to achieve this not only thanks to the diversification of supplies, replacing gas with energy from renewable energy, nuclear and coal, but also using potential energy savings by e.g. a reduction of two degrees of air conditioning in the summer period and a reduction in consumption on the part of industry.