The Russian army seeks military successes that restore its luster in Ukraine

The Russian army ran into unexpected resistance in Ukraine, dashing its hopes of quickly seizing large swathes of territory and slowing its advance, but it continues to seek victories to restore its luster and enable it to tackle any negotiations in a strong position.

Failure of a quick war

According to many Western observers, the Russians failed to achieve a quick victory because they underestimated the enemy’s resistance and failed to take into account the logistical needs of their troops in a protracted war.

“The ineffectiveness of Russia’s war power and the vigor of the Ukrainian military resistance are a real surprise,” underline Philippe Gross and Vincent Tourret on a note from the Strategic Research Foundation (FRS, for its acronym in French).

Without having achieved air superiority after invading the country on February 24, the Russians have failed to carry out any major operations since early March and face a lively Ukrainian defense around kyiv and in other cities.

“The Russian invasion is at an impasse on all fronts”estimated on Thursday Ministry of Defence British in a situation summary.

The Russians surrounded and cut off the supply of several cities in the northeast (Sumy, Kharkiv) and in the southeast (Mariupol) and bombard Kyiv regularly, but they have not yet managed to encircle the capital.

Take this city of 2.8 million people “would probably need 150,000 to 200,000 men”point out the FRS experts, recalling that in a city, the defender always has the advantage.

However, despite the difficulties encountered on the ground, “Russian military superiority is not in doubt”stresses a Western military source. “The operational pause that we observe allows the Russian forces to regenerate, mobilize reinforcements to reactivate, start a second phase”he adds.

Losses

According to the Pentagon, the 150,000 Russian soldiers mobilized for the conflict are on Ukrainian territory. And the losses are high. Estimates by US intelligence cited by the New York Times state that Moscow would have lost 7,000 soldiers in three days, which represents more than 300 deaths a day on the battlefield.

Although it is necessary to handle these figures with caution, the Russian army needs to regenerate, after three weeks of campaigning.

Russian authorities, who have promised not to use conscripts, mobilized reservists and recently launched a recruitment drive among Syrians.

On the other side, the Ukrainian forces also record losses, but have a successful anti-air defense. In addition, the president’s army Volodymyr Zelensky benefits from a large supply of anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft missiles from various countries of the NATO.

“The next ten days will be decisive”says the currently retired US general Ben Hodge, the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)based in Washington.

Short term scenarios

What will be the most likely scenarios on the Russian side in the coming weeks?

According to the French military historian Michael Goyaexist “two possible short-term unlocking points: in front of Mariupol and in front of the Ukrainian army of Donbas”.

According to the French General Staff, the Russians could also try to encircle the 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers deployed on the eastern front, taking the city of Dnipro, a place “strategic between west and east”.

“This would allow the Ukrainian army to be cut in two, it makes a lot of sense at the military level”, “to provoke its collapse or to be in a position of strength in the negotiations”analyzes the colonel Pascal Iani.

Another hypothesis has to do with Mariúpol. The strategic port city located on the shores of the Sea of ​​Azov has been under siege for more than two weeks, with constant bombing.

Despite the evacuation of 20,000 civilians earlier this week, some 300,000 people remain stranded in the city, without electricity or running water.

Take control of Mariupol would allow the Russians to establish a geographical continuity between the pro-Russian separatist territories in the donbas and the peninsula crimeaannexed by Russia in 2014.