Francis Fukuyama, editorial director of the political analysis magazine American Purpose, listed 12 predictions about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could end and the consequences it could bring to the Russian people.
In an article titled “Preparing for Defeat,” the American political scientist predicted that losing is the only path troops are led. Here an excerpt.
How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine end?
1. Russia is headed for a total defeat in the Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent and based on the mistaken assumption that the Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their army would collapse after an invasion.
- Putin committed most of his army to this operation.
- There are no large reserves of forces that you can call up to add to the battle.
- Russian troops are stuck on the outskirts of several Ukrainian cities, without supplies.
2. The collapse of your position could be sudden and catastrophic, instead of coming slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it cannot be supplied or withdrawn and morale will vaporize.
3. There is no diplomatic solution possible for war before this happens. There is no conceivable and acceptable compromise for both Russia and Ukraine, given the losses they have suffered.
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4. The United Nations Security Council once again proved its worthlessness. The only useful thing was the vote of the General Assembly, which helps to identify the bad actors or prevaricators of the world.
5. The decisions of the Biden administration of not declaring a no-fly zone or of not helping to transfer the Polish MiGs were good and kept their point in a very emotional moment. It is better for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians by themselves.
6. The cost Ukraine is paying is enormous. But the biggest damage is being caused by rockets and artillery, against which neither the MiGs nor the no-fly zone can do much. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is the defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived as a strong man. What does he have to offer once he proves his incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
8. The invasion has already done enormous damage to populists around the world, who before the attack were expressing sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán and Donald Trump. The politics of the war exposed his authoritarian leanings.
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9. The war up to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience.
10. Let’s hope Taiwan itself wakes up as to the need to prepare to fight, as the Ukrainians have done, and reinstate compulsory military service.
11. Turkish drones will become best sellers.
12. A Russian defeat will make possible a ‘new birth of freedom’ and get us out of our mess about the declining state of world democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a handful of brave Ukrainians. (I)
Source: Eluniverso
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