IMF warns that war in Ukraine ‘means hunger’ for Africa

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, assured this Friday that war in Ukraine “means famine” for Africa, as well as lower growth and more inflation for the rest of the countries.

In a virtual round table together with other international finance officials, Georgieva explained that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is devastating for the economies of those two countriesbut it also has important effects on those of its neighbors and others as far away as the African and American continents.

“Putting it simply: a war in Ukraine means famine for Africa”, said the managing director of the Fund, pointing to the fact that Russia and Ukraine are among the five largest exporters of wheat in the world, as well as being large producers of fertilizers, corn and sunflower oil, among others.

For countries with economies less fragile than the African ones –in Latin America, Asia and even Europe and the US–, the war may not imply an increase in hunger directly, but it will imply less growth and more inflation, in a context in which prices are already soaring as a result of of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The fragility in one part of the world does not stop there. We are all interconnected and at the IMF we know that macroeconomic stability and peace and security go hand in hand,” Georgieva said.

The managing director recalled that approximately 20% of the member countries of the Fund are in a situation of economic fragility or are part of an armed conflict.

“The pandemic has taught us a very simple lesson,” he explained. When your immune system is weak and you are attacked by a virus, you are at much higher risk. The same thing happens with economic fragility.”.

Last week, the IMF already announced that in April rIt will lower its global growth outlook for 2022 due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The IMF’s current global growth forecast for 2022 is 4.4%.

In addition, the international financial organization pointed out the possibility that Russia will go bankrupt due to the economic sanctions imposed by the rest of the countries, and warned that the Russian economy is already contracting and is heading for a deep recession.

Regarding the specific case of Latin America and the Caribbean, the Fund predicted that the war will worsen the inflationary situation –already very high– due to the pressure it is generating on the price of energy, in addition to implying risks for the supply of the region. (I)