The US and Mexico prepare for a migration wave due to inflation

The governments of the United States and Mexico are bracing for a surge in undocumented immigrants heading to their border in the coming months, after faster inflation in key Central American countries worsened economic difficulties.

Officials from the administrations of Presidents Joe Biden and Andrés Manuel López Obrador discussed in recent days their concern about the impact that rising food and energy prices will have on the region, according to people familiar with the talks who asked not to. be identified as not being authorized to speak publicly on the subject.

The prices of raw materials worldwide have skyrocketed due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russiawhich has affected purchasing power and added economic stress to developing nations.

A White House official confirmed that the increased cost of living was discussed during a trip by the secretary of Homeland Security, Alexander Mayorcasto Mexico and Costa Rica this week. Governments see it as an additional factor that will stimulate the migration of people already facing persistent violence and misery caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which is now in its third year, the official said.

Recent talks have included the State Department, the National Security Council and Mexico’s foreign ministry, the people said.

The State Department referred questions to the White House, and the Department of Homeland Security press office did not respond to a request for comment. The press office of the Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment.

Honduras and El Salvador registered in February the fastest increases in consumer prices since 2014 and 2011, respectively. Inflation in Mexico was 7.3% in February, close to the maximum of two decades reached in November.

food insecurity

Migration generally increases in the Northern Hemisphere spring months, when warmer weather makes travel more feasible than in winter. Although the United States is also facing inflation at its highest level in four decades, this is due, in part, to a strong economy and a tight labor market, conditions that have been historical drivers for attracting immigrants.

The so-called Northern Triangle of Central America, which also includes Guatemala, has been responsible for much of the undocumented migration over the last decade. The region has been plagued by food insecurity caused by natural disasters, which have deepened poverty. Now the countries, which are all net fuel importers, are grappling with crude oil prices that recently rose above $120 a barrel.

Last year, United States provided an additional $300 million in aid to the region, including to mitigate damage from persistent drought and food shortages, and together with Mexico has focused on ways to boost development.

After a dip at the start of the pandemic in 2020, the number of undocumented immigrants apprehended at the border spiked in July of last year to more than 200,000 people a month for the first time in two decades. It has remained at double or triple pre-pandemic levels in recent months.

The Mexican government is also urging the Biden Administration to prepare to send more migrants directly to their home countries rather than south across the Mexican border as a way to deter people from making the journey. people said.

United States has used a Trump-era policy called Title 42, intended to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in detention centers, to return migrants from Central America across the border into northern Mexico. That strained the resources of Mexican border cities and led many people to quickly repeat their attempts to enter the United States.

The government of Biden is preparing for the end of the policy and is working to get Central American countries to cooperate in receiving migrants returning home, the White House official said.