Center candidate must promote social policies to win the presidency in a divided Colombia

The mathematician Sergio Fajardo, chosen by a center-left coalition as a candidate for the presidential election in May, will have to present concrete proposals against poverty and corruption to defeat a populist left and a divided right in a polarized country, according to analysts.

Fajardo won the nomination for the Coalition from Hope Center with just 723,000 votes, his success in reaching the presidency will depend on his ability to outperform other candidates of the same political ideology in the first round and captivate voters in a country plagued by social problems and insecurity.

The challenge is known by Fajardo, a 65-year-old politician, that in 2018 he was about to reach the second round, an objective that was frustrated by the division of the voters of the center between two candidates.

Fajardo could be successful if it manages to spread social and economic proposals that respond to the problems that led thousands of Colombians to protest in the streets last year against unemployment, poverty and poor public health and education systems, experts said.

“It could be more attractive for voters to define themselves by the candidate of the center option”he told Reuters Philip Boteroprofessor of political science at University of the Andes.

“I would expect the centrist candidate to present a very specific agenda of issues on the main social policies that the country needs, the economic recovery after the pandemic and what is coming as a result of the conflict in Europe between Russia and Ukraine”Botero said.

Fajardo will compete in the first round against the leftist Gustavo Petrofavorite in the polls to win the presidency and who prevailed in the consultation of the Historical Pact with more than 4.4 million votes.

He will also face the center right former mayor of Medellin, Federico Gutierrezwho triumphed in his consultation with more than 2.1 million votes.

the right wing candidate Oscar Ivan Zuluagafrom Partido Democratic Center led by the former president Alvaro Uribegave up on Monday his aspiration to support Gutiérrez and seek unity to face Petro.

In the consultations on Sunday, the left obtained more than 5.5 million votes, the right exceeded 3.9 million, while the center obtained 2.1 million votes, according to data provided by the National Registry.

In addition to social issues, the increase in urban insecurity, drug trafficking and the violent armed conflict in which leftist rebels, criminal gangs dedicated to drug trafficking confront each other and the Armed Forces in the mountainous and jungle areas will be topics in the that the center must seek the support of the voters.

For years the divided left and center left have been unable to win the presidency or exercise control in Congress, overshadowed by right-wing rivals who have focused their proposals on security and free-market policies.

fragmented congress

Congress will remain divided, which will force whoever is elected president to build a broad coalition to pass the laws that guarantee his governability. The Liberal Party won 47 seats on Sunday, followed by leftist Historical Pact and the Conservative Party with 41, while the rightist Democratic Center got 30, Radical change 27, the center coalition 26 and the U 25.

However, the recent social protests and the interest of young people in issues such as the environment, inequality, corruption, and a change to end the old political class, could open an opportunity for the left, but also for the center with Fajardo, according to analysts.

“The center has very good chances of showing itself and capitalizing on that center position, which will generate electoral rewards in the midst of a defined, identified and confronted right and left”said the political scientist of the External University, Paola Montilla.

“Social nonconformity can play in favor of the center and the left, which have in their discourse the need to reduce unemployment, poverty and inequality. Everything will depend on the way to reach and convince the voters”Montilla explained, highlighting the high percentage of undecided voters who could define the presidential election.

The right-wing government of the president Ivan Duke faced massive protests in 2021 in rejection of a tax reform and to demand better conditions for the benefit of the poorest.

Duque softened his tax reform proposal that Congress approved for some US$4 billion and although the unions and students suspended the protests, some of which overflowed into acts of violence and vandalism with deaths and injuries, social discontent continues.

Fajardo, who in 2018 won 4.5 million votes in the first round, said last week that he will rigorously lead a process of change in which it will be essential to listen to and respect those who do not share his ideas.

“I am part of a policy that respects, that is serious, that later on can call for the union to be”assured the politician who was a teacher for several years, as well as mayor of the city of Medellin and governor of the department of Antioch.

Among Fajardo’s main proposals are a head-on fight against corruption, greater social investment and a tax reform of some US$8.65 billion in which people with higher incomes would pay more taxes.

“I think that the majority does not identify with a coalition that represents continuity and the other coalition that represents the perspective of rage,” said. “I believe that the majority of Colombia sees itself represented in us”.

But Gutiérrez, from the center-right coalition that also won the nomination, questioned Fajardo’s ability to unite after the disputes within the center.

“It’s not a coalition, it’s a collision”Gutiérrez recently stated when he warned that in the presidential election proposals for order against chaos and for free enterprise against expropriation are at stake.