Could China mediate between Russia and Ukraine?

Amid fierce fighting and mutual accusations, the Ukrainian and Russian negotiators began a new virtual conference on Monday and then interrupted it. Three rounds of talks had previously failed. For this reason, many now pin their hopes on China.

Did Russia ask Beijing for military and economic aid, as indicated by US media? China quickly denied this, saying that the United States had spread disinformation about China constantly in recent times. The director of the Office of the Chinese Foreign Affairs Commission, Yang Jiechi, meanwhile met in Rome with the National Security Adviser of the United States Government, Jake Sullivan, and they agreed to “keep an open line of communication” between the two countries. , according to the White House.

The Chinese position

China has so far remained reluctant to condemn the Russian attack on Ukraine, despite international pressure. Both the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, and his foreign minister, Wang Yi, urged both parties, at the beginning of last week, to end the conflict, and stressed respect for the “sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries ”. But by “all” he explicitly meant Russia as well. Because Beijing shares Moscow’s point of view that the war is a reaction to an alleged provocation by NATO, due to its expansion to the east.

Wang described Russia as the main strategic partner and underlined China’s willingness to further deepen cooperation., “regardless of how dangerous the international environment becomes.” On Thursday, in a telephone conversation with his French counterpart, Jean-Yves Le Drian, the Chinese foreign minister would have spoken for the first time of a “war” in Ukraine.

Danil Botschkow, of the Russian International Affairs Council, in Moscow, however, considers it unlikely that China will voluntarily assume a role of mediator between Ukraine and Russia, because it would be at the center of international attention. “That would inevitably put China at the center of this crisis and every step would be watched very closely by everyone involved,” he told DW.

“Unlimited Friendship”

Also Andrew Small, of the German Marshall Fund, considers that Beijing is not willing to do more than express wishes for peace. “I think behind that is the intention to give Russia leeway to do whatever it wants,” he observes. And he adds that, in the past, China generally assumed a mediating role when it came to “younger brother states”, such as North Korea or Pakistan., where what Beijing said carried weight, and could be trusted to some extent. “China would not feel comfortable trusting Russia and doubting that it would succeed,” he notes.

In recent months, China and Russia have had a clear rapprochement. After a personal meeting in early February, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping declared that the friendship between their countries is limitless. In sum, many observers conclude that Beijing will not jeopardize its ties with Moscow, even though Russia is in a difficult situation, or perhaps because of it.

What China expects from Russia

“Taking into account Putin’s strong will to war, his need to achieve his minimal war goals, and China’s reliance on a strategic and military partnership in general, it is seriously doubtful that Beijing will be able or willing to put a brake on it. substantial to Putin”, says, for his part, Shi Yinhong, professor of International Relations at Renmin University, in the Chinese capital.

Sari Arho Havrén, from the Mercator Institute in Berlin, stresses that friendship with Russia could help China to participate in shaping the world order and to get closer to its own geopolitical objectives. The increasingly critical economic situation in Russia could also open up new investment opportunities for China. “With such investments, China could perhaps meet its future needs for energy and raw materials, become more independent from the West, and strengthen its own autarchy,” she stresses.

Misplaced Western Hopes

For Didi Kirsten Tatlow, of the German Council on Foreign Relations, hopes that China might actively mediate are “quite misplaced.” And he affirms that, “even if Beijing could mediate in the short term, deep down, it would be inviting it to assume control over something that is extremely important for democratic countries. That way, democratic countries would put themselves in a very weak position.”

Botschkow underlines that the Russian behavior corresponds to the objective formulated in February of putting an end to the world order dominated by the United States. Still, he doesn’t think Xi could bring Putin to the negotiating table. “Putin started this and he will see it through to the bitter end,” he says. And he concludes: “The question is not who can influence him, but when he will consider that he has achieved his initial objective.” (I)