news agency
After Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe wonders who is next

After Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe wonders who is next

As they watch the brutal war of Russia on Ukrainesome countries europeans They fear being next.

According to Western officials, the most vulnerable nations would be those that are not part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or the European Union (EU) and are therefore alone and unprotected. The list includes Moldova, neighboring Ukraine, and Georgia, which borders Russia, both members of the former Soviet Union, as well as the Balkan states of Bosnia and Kosovo.

But analysts warn that even NATO members could be at risk, such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – on Russia’s doorstep – or Montenegro, and could face direct military intervention by Moscow or attempts at political destabilization.

Russian President Vladimir Putin “has said from the beginning that this is not just about Ukraine,” said Michal Baranowski, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw office.

“He told us what he wants to do by listing his demands, which included a change of government in Kiev, but also talked about the eastern flank of NATO and the rest of Eastern Europe,” Baranowski said.

As Ukraine staunchly resists the Russian attack that began two weeks ago, Baranowski said “it’s not really clear now how it’s going to achieve its other objectives.”

The US government is well aware of deep concerns in Eastern and Central Europe that the war in Ukraine may be just a prelude to broader attacks against members of the former Warsaw Pact to try to regain regional dominance from Moscow. .

The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, has stated that “Russia is not going to stop at Ukraine”.

“We are worried about neighbors like Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkans. We have to keep an eye on the Western Balkans, especially Bosnia, which could face destabilization by Russia,” he noted.

Here’s a look at the regional situation:

moldova

Like neighboring Ukraine, the former Soviet republic of Moldova has a separatist insurgency in the east, in a disputed territory known as Transnistria, where 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed. Although it is a militarily neutral country with no plans to join NATO, it formally applied for EU membership when the Russian invasion began in a swift bid to bolster its ties with the West.

The country of 2.6 million people is one of the poorest on the continent and is hosting tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine.

The invasion has sparked fears not only of the humanitarian crisis, but of the possibility that Putin may try to link separatists east of the Dniester River with Ukraine through the strategic port of Odessa.

On a visit to the country last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “We stand with Moldova and any other country that may be threatened in the same way.”

The president of Moldova, Maia Sandu, pointed out that at the moment there is no indication that the Russian forces in the Transnistria region have changed their position, but stressed that the concern was there. “Now in this region there is no chance for us to feel safe,” she said.

Georgia

Russia and Georgia fought a war in August 2008, when Georgian government troops tried unsuccessfully to regain control of the breakaway province of South Ossetia, a Moscow-backed region.

Russia crushed the national army in five days of fighting and hundreds of people lost their lives. Later, Russia recognized South Ossetia and another secessionist region, Abkhazia, as independent states and reinforced its military presence in both territories.

The Western-leaning Georgian government has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but has not shown the same solidarity exhibited by Kiev during its war with Moscow. Authorities have prevented hundreds of Georgian volunteers from enlisting in an international brigade fighting Russia on Ukrainian soil.

The country’s seemingly neutral stance has prompted thousands of people to take part in nightly rallies in the capital, Tbilisi, in solidarity with Ukraine. Last week, the government applied to join the EU a few days after declaring that it would not expedite the process due to growing fears of a Russian invasion.

Baltic countries

In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the memory of Soviet rule lives on. Since the invasion of Ukraine, NATO has moved quickly to bolster its military presence on its allies on the eastern flank, while Washington has promised additional support.

For residents of the three Baltic nations, especially those old enough to have lived under Soviet control, the tensions leading up to the February 24 invasion were reminiscent of mass deportations and oppression. The three countries were annexed by Josef Stalin during World War II and did not regain their independence until the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991.

They entered NATO in 2004, remaining under the military protection of the United States and its Western allies. They say it is imperative that the Alliance show determination not just with words, but with boots on the ground.

“Russia always measures military might, but also the will of countries to fight,” said Janis Garisons, State Secretary at the Latvian Defense Ministry. “As soon as she sees a weakness, she will exploit it.”

Blinken, who visited the Latvian capital Riga on Monday, said the Baltic nations have “formed a democratic wall that is now facing the wave of autocracy” that Russia is trying to push through Europe.

the balkans

It would be difficult for Russian troops to reach the Balkans without facing NATO forces positioned in all the neighboring countries. But Moscow could destabilize the region, as it already does, with the help of Serbia, an ally and one it has been arming with tanks, sophisticated air defense systems and warplanes.

The Kremlin has always considered the region to be within its orbit of influence, even though it was never part of the Soviet bloc. A devastating civil war in the 1990s left at least 120,000 dead and millions homeless.

Serbia, the largest country in the region, is often blamed for initiating the conflict to try to prevent the disintegration of the Serb-dominated Yugoslavia through the use of brutal force, something that would resemble the current effort of Moscow for trying to bring Ukraine back into its orbit by force.

There are fears in the West that the Serbian leadership, pro-Moscow and which has refused to join international sanctions against Russia, is trying to take advantage of the spotlight on Ukraine to further destabilize its neighbours, especially Bosnia, where the Serb minority has threatened to secede from the federation to join Serbia.

The Serbian authorities have repeatedly denied that they are meddling in neighboring countries, but have offered tacit support to the Bosnian Serb secessionist movements and their leader, Milorad Dodik.

Russia’s embassy in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo warned last year that Bosnia was headed for NATO, “our country will have to react to this hostile act.” Joining the Alliance would force Bosnia to choose a “political-military confrontation,” he added.

EU peacekeepers in Bosnia have announced the deployment of some 500 additional soldiers to the country due to “deteriorating security at the international level (which) has the potential to spread instability”.

Kosovo, which became independent from Serbia in 1999 after a NATO air war against Serbian troops, has asked Washington to establish a permanent military base in the country and accelerate its integration into the Alliance after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Accelerating Kosovo’s entry into NATO and having a permanent base for US forces is an immediate necessity to ensure peace, security and stability in the Western Balkans,” Kosovar Defense Minister Armend Mehaj said on Facebook. .

Serbia says that would be unacceptable. Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence was recognized by more than 100 mostly Western nations, but not by Russia or Serbia.

Montenegro, a longtime ally that turned its back on the Kremlin to join NATO in 2017, has imposed sanctions on Moscow over the war in Ukraine and appears to be the next of the region’s countries to join the EU. The nation is divided between supporters of pro-Western policies and pro-Serbs and pro-Russians, increasing tensions.

Russia has repeatedly warned Montenegro’s pro-Western president, Milo Djukanovic, who brought the small Adriatic nation into NATO, that this process was illegitimate and did not have the consent of the entire population.

The Kremlin may want to improve its ties with Montenegro in a bid to strengthen its presence in the Mediterranean.

Source: Gestion

You may also like

Hot News

TRENDING NEWS

Subscribe

follow us

Immediate Access Pro