US moves closer to oil countries with dubious reputations, after Russian invasion of Ukraine

Three disreputable oil regimes that have been spectacularly snubbed by President Joe Biden and previous US leaders – Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iran – are now being approached by Washington, at a time when world oil prices fuels reach alarming levels due to the Ukraine crisis.

However, it is not clear whether US diplomacy will be able to get more oil on the market quickly enough to offset current supply shortages, or whether it will be able to wean previously shunned oil countries from profitable alliances with Russia, especially all for Saudi Arabia.

for the government of the president Joe Bidenthe rapprochement of the United States with three conflicting oil giants, at best, could lead to stabilizing the rising prices of oil and gas, bringing those governments closer to West and away from Russia and China.

At worst, Biden risks humiliating rejection and conviction for reaching out to regimes accused of human rights abuses and violence.

“We have a global interest in maintaining a… constant supply of energy, including through diplomatic efforts”Secretary of State Antony Blinken explained about reaching out to countries that have been out of favor with the United States or the Biden administration, and in the case of Iran, that represent an armed threat. “We have a multiplicity of interests and we use diplomacy to try to promote them”he added.

At a time when the Russian invasion of Ukraine raises the stakes in many areas, the phrase marked a marked change for Biden from the beginning of his presidency, when he praised democratic values ​​such as “the permanent advantage of the United States” in the diplomatic field.

Saudi Arabia has reaped a lot of financial benefit in the last two years from its partnership with Russiaanother of the world’s leading crude oil producers, to keep the global supply of oil and natural gas at a modest level, and with it, prices high.

Biden took office vowing to isolate Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and the rest of the Saudi royal family, for various abuses, including the 2018 murder of American journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Biden and the young crown prince are not known to have ever spoken.

“I don’t know if he’s willing to swallow his words so much”Saudi affairs analyst David Ottaway said of Biden’s ongoing attempts to improve his government’s relations with Prince Salman and Saudi Arabia, the country that could most easily end global supply shortages. “He was going to turn this guy into an outcast”he remembered.

As to Iran and Venezuelathe United States would appreciate positive diplomatic results that bring oil from those nations, but “The problem is that, in that situation, their bargaining power increases drastically”opined Claudio Galimberti, vice president of analysis at Rystad Energy.

“So Iran will make a lot of very lofty requests in exchange for rejoining the deal, and so would Venezuela.”Galimberti considered. Also, it could take time to ramp up production.

Russia’s devastating military invasion of Ukraine, and ensuing market disruptions, as well as sanctions on Russia’s oil exports, helped push the average price of gasoline in the United States to $4.25 a gallon on Wednesday. .

Biden on Tuesday announced a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas, driving up already high prices stemming from the cap on oil production. OPECdevised by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which is not a member of the oil cartel.

The Biden administration is now making cautious overtures to Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In the case of IranFederal officials are not publicly linking their diplomacy to oil, though they are seeking a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program that could see international sanctions on Tehran lifted and Iran’s oil quickly returned to the market legally.

For Biden, a failure at this high-profile oil diplomacy would risk humiliating treatment by hostile rulers abroad, which could hurt his re-election on the home front.

And a success? Potentially the same.

“Our response to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s war should not be to strengthen our relationship with the Saudis.”Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar tweeted, citing Saudi Arabia’s years-long war in neighboring Yemen.

Others in Biden’s Democratic Party have made clear their objections to any abrupt US backing of Saudi Arabia and its crown prince for access to oil.

Meanwhile, the prospect of a rapprochement by Washington with Iran, its longtime nemesis, and Venezuela, under the Chavista government, was enough to provoke angry statements, social media campaigns and outraged comments from many Republican lawmakers and others this week.

The Republican Party aims to make high oil prices a campaign issue. Indeed, noted Richard Goldberg, a former Trump administration National Security Council official, the Biden administration is saying of Iran: “They will continue to finance terrorism, but let’s go ahead and buy their oil.”.