Can Putin cut off gas supplies to Europe? What would be the consequences?

In the face of the inexorable advance of Russian troops in Ukraine after 14 days of war, the West continues to implement all kinds of sanctions packages with the aim of curbing the escalation of violence orchestrated by Putin. In addition to the freezing of assets of the Russian Central Bank, the expulsion of different entities from the SWIFT system or the prohibition of Russian airlines operating in European airspace, a new economic blow is added that could be decisive in this battle: ending dependence on the Russian oil and gas.

This Tuesday, The United States announced a veto to imports of oil and gas from this country while already recognizing that this sanction was going to end up affecting the pockets of Americans. very shortly after, United Kingdom did the same by revealing that he is exploring the possibility of veto the purchase of Russian natural gas, which represents only 4% of the British market. That same afternoon, the European Union announced its intention to launch a plan to replenish gas reserves for next winter with the intention of ending the relationship with Russia in this regard.

And this very Wednesday, the high representative Josep Borrell called directly on European citizens to act: “We Europeans need to face the challenges that we have not sought, but that the world projects on us, and Ukraine is the first. Cut off the gas in your homes, reduce the dependency of those who attack Ukraine.” Thus, comparing this movement with the collective citizen effort during the pandemic, Borrell added that “what we have done during the coronavirus must be done with Ukraine: a collective commitment to a historic task.”

Putin has responded to these actions. The Russian president has signed a decree of “special measures” in which he authorizes the Government to prohibit exports of products and raw materials with the aim of “guaranteeing the security of the Russian Federation and the uninterrupted operation of the industry.” Hours before its approval, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak already made it clear that Russia has every right to take action if sanctions are imposed on its energy exports, such as establish an embargo on the gas that arrives through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline.

But can Russia really afford to cut off gas supplies? What consequences would this hypothetical action have for the EU and the rest of the Western territories? The truth is that the scenario is much more complex than it may seem at first, given the different interests and businesses that the countries maintain with Russia and, by default, with each other. Experts do not believe in principle that the Kremlin can choose this path, since it would affect the Russian economy more than the European or American ones.

Russia supplies 45% of the gas imported by the European Union; countries like Finland consume 100% of that import

Namely, not supplying the product implies in the same way not receiving benefits from its sale. In this sense, with the economic siege created against Russia as punishment for the invasion of Ukraine, the financial situation of this country is far from its best moment, despite the commercial ties it continues to maintain with other powers, such as China. In addition, acting in this way could lead the West to launch another package of even tougher sanctions and restrictions -if possible- against Russia, leaving the country on the brink of a very serious crisis.

However, in the event of being pigeonholed in such a risky position, the consequences would soon be felt by those who depend heavily on Russian energy exports. Without going any further, the countries that make up the European Union. According to Brussels, currently Russia supplies 45% of the gas imported by the European Union. Here it should be noted that, although dependence on France or Spain is relatively low -20% and 10%, respectively-, in Germany 60% of the gas consumed comes from Russia and in other countries such as Finland it is 100%. %.

Spain, in a key position?

Thus, although Europe has already launched the study of alternatives to reduce this dependency, implementing these will take time -as has been said, not all countries have the same relationships or the same facility for obtaining fossil materials-. And an abrupt cut of the supply like the one that could happen would have immediate consequences on the economy not only from the territories that most need these imports right now; also, in that of the countries interconnected with the former.

To give an example of a situation, that the economic structures of Germany or Finland may be affected by the end of the supply would end up affecting, albeit on a smaller scale, Spain and all the member countries of the EU. However, this new situation, experts say, could place our country in an essential position to safeguard the interests of the Union. Precisely because we have other channels to obtain gasthe Peninsula would become “a strategic element to save that energy dependency suffered, above all, by the countries of Central Europe”.

This has been indicated by José Manuel Corrales, professor of Economics and Business at the European University, in an analysis offered to the newspaper El Mundowhere however he has warned that, although Spain “is in a very positive situation” in this field, this does not imply that, for example, Algeria “is going to provide the gas that the EU needs from today to tomorrow”. At the moment, Europe’s plans go through the expansion of its gas reserves before the arrival of winter and for Europe to be independent of Russia’s fossil fuels before 2030.

Indeed, the Commission intends to present a legislative proposal by April that would require gas storage throughout the European Union must be filled to at least 90% capacity before October of each year, in line with what was expressed by France. Likewise, he has proposed a new scheme based on diversifying the gas supply and reducing the use of fossil fuels more quickly. “We simply cannot trust a provider that explicitly threatens us,” warned EC President Ursula Von der Leyen. It remains to be seen how Russia will act and, consequently, how the whole world will maneuver.