Russia and Ukraine: 5 scenarios of how the war could end

Amidst the fog of war, it can be difficult to see the way forward. The news coming in from the places where the fighting is going on, the diplomatic noise, the plight of refugees and displaced people… all of this can be overwhelming.

But let’s step back for a moment and consider how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might play out.

What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military leaders are examining? Few can predict the future with certainty; however, here are some possible outcomes. Most are gloomy.

short war

In this scenario, Russia escalates its military operations. There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket attacks throughout Ukraine. The Russian aviation force, which has so far played a discreet role, launches devastating aerial bombardments.

Massive cyberattacks are spreading across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure. Power supplies and communication networks are cut. Thousands of civilians die.

Despite valiant resistance, Kiev falls within days. The government is replaced by a pro-Moscow puppet regime. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is assassinated or flees to western Ukraine or even abroad to establish a government in exile.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough to maintain some control. Thousands of refugees continue to flee west. Ukraine joins Belarus as a satellite state of Moscow.

This outcome is by no means impossible, but it would depend on a number of factors changing, including better performance by Russian forces, further deployment of Russian forces, and the fading of Ukraine’s extraordinary fighting spirit.

Putin could bring about regime change in Kiev and an end to Ukraine’s western integration. But any pro-Russian government would be illegitimate and vulnerable to insurgency.

That outcome would still be unstable and the possibility of the conflict breaking out again would be high.

long war

Perhaps this will most likely turn into a protracted war. Perhaps the Russian forces will bog down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics, and inept leadership.

It may take longer for Russian forces to secure cities like Kiev, whose defenders are fighting for every street. A long siege ensues.

The confrontation echoes Russia’s long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize – and largely destroy – Chechnya’s capital Grozny.

And even once Russian forces have gained a foothold in Ukraine’s cities, they may struggle to maintain control.

Russia may not be able to provide enough troops to cover such a vast country.

Thus, Ukraine’s defensive forces transform into an effective, well-motivated insurgency supported by local populations. The West continues to provide weapons and ammunition.

AND then, perhaps after many years, it may be with a new leadership in Moscow, the Russian forces finally leave the Ukraine, bowed and bloodiedLike their predecessors, they left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents.

european war

Could this war spread beyond the borders of Ukraine?

President Putin could try to win back more of Russia’s former empire by sending troops to former Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, which are not part of NATO.

Or there could just be a miscalculation and escalation. Putin could declare that the supply of Western weapons to the Ukrainian forces is an act of aggression that justifies retaliation.

He could threaten to send troops to NATO-member Baltic states such as Lithuania to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal enclave of Kaliningrad.

This would be enormously dangerous and would entail the risk of war with NATO. According to article 5 of the statutes of the military alliance, an attack against one member is an attack against all.

But Putin could take that risk if he felt it was the only way to save his leadership.. If he were perhaps faced with defeat in the Ukraine, he might be tempted to climb even higher.

We now know that the Russian leader is willing to break established international norms.

This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons. This week, Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert.

Most analysts doubt that this means its use is likely or imminent. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

diplomatic solution

Will there still be, despite everything, a possible diplomatic solution?

“The arms are speaking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Certainly, the dialogue continues.

French President Emmanuel Macron has spoken with President Putin by phone.

Diplomats say they are testing Moscow. And surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks twice.

They may not have made much progress.

Only on Thursday did they reach an agreement in principle to create humanitarian corridors and evacuate the civilian population from the most affected areas, but in any case, by allowing talks, Putin appears to have at least accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire.

The key question is whether the West can offer what diplomats refer to as “an exit ramp,” an American term for a freeway exit.

Diplomats say it is important for the Russian leader to know what it would take for Western sanctions to be lifted so that a face-saving deal is finally possible.

Let’s consider this scenario. The war is going badly for Russia. Sanctions begin to unsettle Moscow. Opposition grows as body bags return home.

Putin wonders if he has bitten off more than he can chew. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it.

China intervenes, pressuring Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. So Putin starts looking for a way out.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such a devastating loss of life.

Then the diplomats get involved and a deal is made. Ukraine, let’s say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of Donbas. In turn, Putin accepts Ukraine’s independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe.

This may not seem likely. But it is not beyond the realm of possibility that such a scenario could arise from the wreckage of a bloody conflict.

Putin overthrown

And Vladimir Putin himself? When he launched the invasion of him, he declared, “We are ready for any outcome.”

But what if that result was him losing power? It may seem unthinkable. However, the world has changed in recent days and now people think about those things.

Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, wrote this week: “Regime change is now as likely in Moscow as it is in Kiev”.

Why could I say this? Well, maybe Putin is after a disastrous war. Thousands of Russian soldiers die. Economic sanctions hurt Russia. Putin loses popular support.

Perhaps there is the threat of popular revolution. He uses Russia’s internal security forces to suppress that opposition.

But this is done very harshly, and enough of Russia’s military, political, and economic elite turn against him.

The West makes it clear that if Putin leaves and is replaced by a more moderate leader, Russia will see some sanctions lifted and normal diplomatic relations restored.

There is a palace coup and Putin is out.

Again, this may not seem likely at this point. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Putin no longer believe that he can defend their interests.

Conclution

These scenarios are not mutually exclusive: some aspects of each could combine to produce different results.

But however this conflict plays out, the world has changed. will not return to status quo previous.

Russia’s relationship with the outside world will be different. European attitudes towards security will be transformed.

And the rules-based liberal international order may have rediscovered what it was for in the first place.