Keys of the Ukrainian guerrilla: wear, resistance, harassment

After 12 days of fighting, one of the only certainties of the conflict in Ukraine lies in the effectiveness of the Ukrainian guerrilla, which considerably slows down the Russian advance.

Preparation

Starting in 2016, NATO and Kiev began a training program for special forces, which currently number 2,000 troops.

These forces — nimble, fast, and flexible — are proficient in troop movement and urban warfare, and essential alongside citizen-turned-soldiers.

“Ukrainians have spent the last eight years planning, training and equipping to resist the Russian occupation,” says Douglas London, a former CIA black ops officer, in Foreign Affairs.

The Ukrainian strategy “does not seek to repel the Russian invasion, but to bleed Moscow until the occupation is unsustainable,” he said.

“An insurrection that has secure supplies, ample reserves of fighters and sanctuaries beyond its borders can be sustained indefinitely,” he added.

Ground

Knowledge of both rural and urban terrain represents an advantage for the insurrection, as well as local networks of fighters or informers, from soldiers to grandmothers.

“Even if David may lose his initial fight against Goliath, he has brothers and brothers who are not just armed with slingshots,” says Spencer Meredith, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington.

Urban clashes are sure to increase. And “that changes everything”, points out a French military source, for whom “this will lead the Russians to error in every corner”.

Resistance

Since the beginning of the conflict, the resistance has relied on simple and cheap methods: making Molotov cocktails, blowing up key bridges for the Russian advance, stacking sandbags and placing metal beams in the shape of a cross, etc.

“On the Ukrainian side, there is no other option but to further increase the war of attrition capability by rapidly forming territorial troops and injecting light equipment, as much and as quickly as possible,” French Colonel Michel Goya tweeted. , an observer of the conflict.

Bullying

The principle of guerrilla warfare is that it makes the fight long, costly, exhausting for the enemy and unacceptable to his public opinion.

“Citizen-soldiers learn to target vulnerabilities in advancing enemy forces, sabotaging their ability to consolidate it,” Spencer Meredith describes. “Victory becomes more costly than the aggressor can bear.”

The confusion between combatants and civilians makes the task easier. “Hidden in the plain or attacking from the shadows, the guerrillas increase the number of combatants and complicate their identification.”

And subduing Ukraine has its risks. Russian secret services and military intelligence need “Ukrainian help,” insists Meredith, for whom this “creates opportunities” for the guerrillas to “manipulate, disorient and undermine Russian coordination.”

horror and psychology

The political use of terror is a constant in the theory of war.

Experts stress that guerrilla harassment will affect the morale of Russian soldiers and the perception of the conflict by the Russian people who might doubt its convenience.

Thomas Pepinsky, a war expert at the Brookings Institution, notes that the Ukrainians are lenient in their treatment of captured soldiers. “If the war degenerates into a harsh insurrection, their tactics could become more violent.”

Fear, discouragement, and disorganization are powerful causes of ineffectiveness. “The Ukrainian resistance will be more effective if the Russians are in a constant state of alert, without sleep, exposed to exaggerated reactions,” says the analyst.