Russia planned to repeat Crimea but now faces long war, expert says

Russian officials planned a quick campaign in Ukraine that would conclude with a change of government, akin to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, but now must prepare for a long and attrition war against a more motivated adversary, according to a senior expert on the Russian Army.

Michael Kofman, director of Russian Studies at the specialized center for military analysis CNA, acknowledged in a virtual conference that the first days of the conflict in Ukraine were “surprising and revealing of some of the problems of the Russian Armed Forces”, but after that Moscow has changed the strategy.

“Their calculations led them to recreate an enlarged version of Crimea in 2014. They thought it would be a matter of days, major fighting would be avoided and regime change would be achieved in Kiev.“said the analyst,

That strategy was seen in how, early in the invasion, many Russian vehicles advanced in small detachments away from the convoy.

They did not anticipate much resistance, but quickly ran into ambushes that cut them off from supply lines and forced them to fall back.

“The way they operated in the first 48 hours was as if they were in their own country. The Russian Army does not see the war in Ukraine as an expeditionary conflict”, underlined Kofman, for whom the “chauvinism” decisively influenced war planning.

Part of the explanation is that the Russian soldiers expected to meet with the complacency of the population, something very different from what awaited them in reality, which forced them to readjust their tactics after four days of fighting.

The expert considered, despite everything, that Russia has made “considerable progress in the south and northeast” of Ukraine, although it still has “a relatively small number of troops to advance on many fronts.”

“It has not yet been seen as much artillery fire as the Russian Army could employ. Since the goal is a change of regime, it is probable that they will not want to use indiscriminate force, but as the war progresses they will be able to achieve their military objectives, although hardly the political ones.”, he added.

For Kofman, the fact that Moscow is stockpiling weapons and equipment denotes real concern that the conflict will spread and lead to NATO intervention.

The analyst fears that in Kiev a scenario like the assault on Grozny, the Chechen capital, in 1999, which ended with the total destruction of the city, will be reproduced.

The Russian military has for now avoided entering large cities, in order to control key intersections and smaller, more strategic locations. Kofman believes that an “operational pause” could be seen in a couple of weeks for Russian troops to reorganize and resupply, as everything points to “a long and attrition war.”

Despite the fact that he considers that after the first skirmishes a sensation of “euphoria” has spread in the Ukrainian ranks, he praised their resistance until now.

“They have concentrated on holding the big cities and the air defense has been more capable than previously believed. But a lot of this has to do with the morale (of the troops), “said the analyst, who contrasted it with the state of mind among the Russian military.

For Kofman, “if the Russian soldiers think they were cheated, they will lose heart pretty quickly. You see a lot of abandoned equipment, it’s a tragedy for many Russian military. This is clearly Putin’s war.”

And he ventured serious problems for the regime of the Russian president when those same fighters return to their country, also hit by harsh economic sanctions from the West.

Moscow, despite everything, has not yet responded to these sanctions, so it can be said that there will be some form of escalation of the conflict soon, in his opinion.