Sweden and Finland alter arms policy amid growing support for NATO

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused the breaking of the tradition of not sending weapons to conflicting countries of Sweden and Finland, allies but not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), in a situation of increasing support for the entry.

The latest polls show greater support for joining NATO, especially in Finland, and several pro-Alliance parties have reinforced their speech in favor of entry.

But the social democratic governments that govern both countries maintain the current line and rule out modifying it for the moment, while the Russian regime of Vladimir Putin warns of the possible consequences of an income.

Since the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939, Sweden did not authorize sending weapons to a country in conflict, until on Monday, February 28, Parliament approved sending 5,000 rocket launchers and equipment to Kiev for almost 38 million euros.

Sweden has strict laws to export weapons to conflict zones, although with exceptions, such as supplies linked to previous contracts, an argument used with the United States and the United Kingdom during the invasion of Iraq; or if it affects security and foreign policy, the reason given now.

The Finnish government also announced on Monday the shipment to Ukraine of 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 pieces of ammunition and 1,500 anti-tank weapons to support the Ukrainian authorities.

This decision was described as “historic” by the Prime Minister, the Social Democrat Sanna Marin, as it was the first time that Finland made an exception in its policy of neutrality and supplied lethal weapons to a country at war.

The Finnish president, Sauli Niinistö, who endorsed the measure, pointed out however that the shipment of weapons does not make Finland a participant in the war, but it will serve to help the Ukrainian people defend themselves from aggression.

“The original aim of this policy was to prevent situations of submission in which weapons could be used for offensive purposes, but that is not the case now,” Niinistö told YLE state television.

Entry into NATO

A recent poll by the conservative newspaper Svenska Dagbladet reveals that 39% of Swedes support joining NATO – and 29% are against it – a number several points higher than a January survey.

The opposition leader, the conservative Ulf Kristersson, has redoubled the slogans in favor of entry and stressed that Sweden is not guaranteed NATO protection in the event of an attack, although the authorities do not believe that the conflict in Ukraine poses an increase in the threat direct.

“It is important that Sweden has stability in its basic security doctrine, in its freedom of alliance. The important thing is to focus on adjusting our preparation and maneuvering with other countries,” Defense Minister Petter Hultqvist said.

Sweden sent hundreds of soldiers to the Baltic island of Gotland in January due to the increase in Russian ships in the area, a symbolic gesture framed in several measures promoted since 2014, after the accession of Crimea by Russia and the detection of an alleged foreign submarine in Stockholm, episode never clarified.

Thus, military service has been reinstated, the defense budget has been increased, the largest military maneuvers have been carried out in 24 years and a permanent detachment has once again been established on Gotland.

Although those opposed to admission are the majority in Parliament, a hypothetical electoral victory of the opposition in the legislative elections in September could change the balance.

The Swedish tradition implies, however, that major reforms require broad consensus, so a shift would be unfeasible without counting on the Social Democrats.

Radical change in Finland

The war in Ukraine has brought about a radical change in the attitude of the Finns with regard to an eventual entry of the Nordic country into NATO, despite constant threats from Russia.

In little more than a month the percentage of Finns who oppose joining NATO has fallen from 43% to 28%, while supporters have risen from 30% to 53%, according to a survey published on Monday.

The escalation of tensions in Ukraine led a group of supporters of joining NATO to launch a citizens’ initiative to request that the Eduskunta (Parliament) call a consultative referendum this year.

This popular initiative collected in less than a week the 50,000 signatures necessary for its processing in the Eduskunta, for which the Government decided to reopen the parliamentary debate on a possible adhesion to the Alliance as of Tuesday.

However, the Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, pointed out via Twitter that the objective of this plenary session will not be to “debate in depth” Finland’s relationship with NATO, but rather to sound out the opinion of all political parties.

Finland is the second European country -after Ukraine- that shares more kilometers of border with Russia and it already suffered a similar invasion by the Soviet Union during the Second World War, so the issue of NATO has always been especially sensitive .

However, what happened in Ukraine makes many Finns prefer to eventually face the “serious political-military consequences” that Moscow threatens as part of the Alliance rather than as a non-aligned country.