What will happen if Russia takes over Ukraine? This and other unknowns about the conflict

On Thursday, February 24, the world woke up to the news that Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered his Army to invade Ukraine. Memories of a new conflict in Europe loomed, while uncertainty about how devastating it could be in human and economic terms increased people’s fear.

Eight days after the invasion began, more than half a million inhabitants of that country decided to carry out a mass exodus to take refuge and save their lives, but many have not succeeded.

More and more countries in Europe join the decision to veto Russia applying administrative, economic and political sanctions. This punishment has already begun to affect the civilian population.

However, the question remains as to what can happen if the Russian troops manage to take Kiev and overthrow the government of Volodymyr Zelensky, why NATO did not intervene in support of Ukraine or how drastic the sanctions applied to the government of Vladimir Putin turned out to be.

What happens if Russia manages to take over Ukraine?

“Right now, trying to understand what’s going on is like trying to take a clear picture of a fast-moving train.”noted Russian researcher Mathieu Boulegue during an interview with DW.

However, he believes that Ukraine has everything to lose, so he will not give up so easily and will fight to the death. “Russia will be mitigated by the ability of the Ukrainian forces to fight back and by our own response in the West, whether there will be a genuine response to try to change the cost-benefit calculus of the kremlin”he pointed.

As detailed by the BBC’s Ukrainian service journalist George Erman, this is an existential question for Ukraine and a defining and dangerous moment for the world.

He also considered that Kyiv It is the most difficult city for Russian forces to penetrate, so it is foreseeable that they could lose a battle there.“The city has a long history of revolutions, so this fight can last for many weeks or even months,” he pointed.

Before reaching the capital, Putin would have to seize much larger parts of the Ukrainian territory. Still, upon reaching Kyiva city with more than 3 million inhabitants will have to face the 18,000 civilian volunteers who agreed to fight for their country.

It is worth mentioning that this city is considered pro-European and pro-NATO.

“The counterattack will be fierce and a Ukrainian insurgency would quickly emerge. Support would come from many directions, many sources, and in many forms. It’s hard to imagine that the take can survive. It would go down in history as the darkest of the darkest hours.” details.

For Gerald Toal, professor of International Relations at Virginia Tech University in the USA, with the invasion Russia seeks to distance Ukraine from the West because they have “the perception that they are being surrounded by an enemy alliance”.

For the BBC, Toal explains that Putin considers that “The West has turned Ukraine into an anti-Russian platform and that is something that needs to be resolved.”

It should be remembered that in 2021, Putin presented the United States and NATO with a list of security demands, including that Ukraine not be part of NATO and that the countries of the alliance disappear their military footprint in Central and Eastern Europe.

But Russia’s narrative is different, the Russian ambassador to the United Nations headquarters in Geneva, Gennady Gatilov, said that they do not intend to occupy Ukraine and its troops will withdraw once it has fulfilled its goal of “demilitarizing” and “denazifying” the country.

“Our goal is the denazification of the regime and the demilitarization of Ukraine so that we have guarantees that there will be no threats coming from Ukraine against Russia (…) We are not going to occupy Ukraine and it will be the Ukrainian people who decide on their future politician,” the ambassador declared at a press conference with international correspondents accredited to the UN.

Why does NATO not intervene in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

The answer to this question may seem simpler. Currently, Ukraine is not an official member of the Atlantic Alliance. That is why it does not receive military aid from the countries that make up this organization.

The NATO expressed his total rejection of the Russian bombing, after the president of this Alliance, Jens Stoltenbergaccused President Vladimir Putin of having “destroyed” peace in Europe, at a press conference in Poland.

However, he stressed that the NATO “does not seek to enter into conflict with Russia”for which he would not send military personnel or planes to Ukraine, while he urged Moscow to “withdraw immediately” from this country.

The foreign ministers of the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance are scheduled to have an extraordinary meeting.

What drastic sanctions did Europe and the West apply against Russia?

Not only Ukraine He decided to cut all possible ties that united him to Russia after the invasion began. The European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada joined forces to administratively, economically and politically sanction the government of Vladimir Putin.

The first action they took together was to exclude certain Russian banks from the financial system SWIFT; the same that allows payments between thousands of financial institutions in 200 countries.

system exclusion SWIFT it is considered one of the harshest measures the international community can take against Russia, according to DW.

In addition to this punishment, United States expelled number two from the Russian embassy in Washingtonaccording to a State Department official.

On the other hand, the European Union decided to take action against businessmen and oligarchs close to the Kremlin. Their assets in the EU will be frozen, and rich Russians will not be able to obtain European citizenship for themselves and their families.

private companies like Apple, Disney and Ford, are reducing their operations in Russia. The Ford car company announced last Tuesday that it was doing the same.

Airbus and Boeing they indicated that they would suspend service to Russian airlines.

Goalthe parent company of Facebookand Youtubewhich belongs to Googlenoted that they would block access to the Russian media RT and Sputnik throughout the European Union.

Spotify announced on Wednesday the closure of its office in Russia and limitations on access to content published by Russian state media in response to the “unprovoked attack on Ukraine.”

Mastercard and Visa blocked multiple financial institutions from their network as a result of Putin’s actions.

imminent take

The Russian President, Vladimir Putinaffirmed that the Russian forces have practically eliminated Ukraine’s military infrastructure, in the ten days since the armed intervention began in that country, which he described as a “difficult decision”.

“The first thing they (the Russian military) did was destroy the entire military infrastructure. Well, not all of it, but partially, mainly warehouses with weapons, ammunition, aviation, anti-aircraft defense systems. Destroying air defense systems takes a certain amount of time: you have to find them and then hit them. This work has practically been completed.” Putin said.

About the request Ukraine of an air exclusion – denied by NATO -, said that if it happened Russia would see it as an intervention by the allies in the conflict.

“We heard that it is necessary to establish a no-fly zone over the territory of Ukraine. To do this is impossible from the territory of Ukraine itself, it can only be done from the territory of some neighboring states. But any movement in that direction will be considered by us as a participation in the armed conflict by that State from whose territory threats to our country are created”, stressed.

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