Russia’s war against Ukraine has been going on for more than a week, but its consequences are already reverberating around the world: it has altered international relations, isolated Moscow, united the West and raised the specter of a nuclear confrontation.
Russia, a ‘pariah’ state
The Moscow offensive marks a turning point for the entire world.
Russia’s attack on Ukrainian territory shattered “hope that post-Cold War Europe would be spared a full-scale ground war,” said Ali Wyne, a senior analyst at consultancy Eurasia Group.
Europe, the United States and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres have joined forces to denounce Russia’s attack on its neighbor as a blatant violation of the rules-based international order built after World War II.
The punishment was quick and painful. Western powers unleashed an unprecedented cascade of sanctions against Russia.
From paralyzing the Russian financial system, imposing sanctions on its oligarchs and on President Vladimir Putin himself, to prohibiting Russia from using European airspace and its participation in major sports competitions.
“In the future, Russia will be a pariah and it’s hard to see how they can restore anything like normal interactions in the international system,” said Sarah Kreps, a professor at Cornell University.
In 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was experiencing “brain death”, divided by disagreements among members and disparaged by former US Republican President Donald Trump (2017-2021). ).
When Democrat Joe Biden was elected to the White House, he sought to breathe new life into the Atlantic alliance, hoping to trust NATO in his confrontation with China. That sparked further internal divisions, with some members saying confronting Beijing was not part of the organization’s mission.
Born at the start of the Cold War with the goal of protecting Europe from the Soviet threat under the US nuclear umbrella, the transatlantic military alliance is now rediscovering its purpose, and its key enemy, by taking on Moscow.
“Russia’s invasion strengthened NATO, deepened the transatlantic alignment and, perhaps most notably, forced Germany to reverse its long-standing stance on sending deadly weapons to conflict zones,” Wyne said. “Whether greater short-term Western cohesion produces a long-term shared approach to dealing with Moscow remains an open question,” she said.
europe rearming
The French diplomat and economist Jean Monnet, who played an important role in the reconstruction of Europe after World War II, assured that Europe will be born from crises and its solutions to those crises.
His words ring true today. Heeding a long-standing call from Paris to bolster Europe’s military might, the 27-member European Union (EU) has approved a total of 500 million euros in defense aid for Ukraine.
In a radical move, Berlin broke with its doctrine when it announced that it would send military aid to Ukraine.
And German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has declared that his country, often criticized by the United States as a NATO stand-in for its small defense budget, will significantly increase military spending to modernize its army.
Positioned Neutrality
Neutrality is not indifference. So said Swiss President Ignazio Cassis when he announced that his country will back all EU sanctions against Russia, in a major break with its long tradition of neutrality and reputation as an international banking center.
And Finland and Sweden, traditionally not aligned with NATO, are moving in their direction.
Japan, South Korea and Singapore have condemned Russia’s invasion, although India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have not.
China’s ‘awkward position’
But Russia has its own allies. Moscow has the support of the Venezuelan dictatorship, expressed by the illegitimate Chavista president Nicolás Maduro. And Chinese President Xi Jinping offered his support to Putin shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine.
It remains to be seen to what extent China will help Russia offset the effect of Western sanctions.
Beijing remains cautious. She chose to abstain from, rather than veto, a UN Security Council resolution that “deplores” Russian aggression in Ukraine and expresses “deep regret” to Kiev over the war.
“Russia’s invasion has put China in an awkward position,” said Wyne, an analyst at Eurasia Group.
“The longer and bloodier the conflict becomes, the more difficult it will be for China to balance its support for Russia’s core positions (such as opposing NATO expansion) and its desire to avoid incurring further transatlantic opprobrium,” he remarked.
Nuclear weapons are no longer taboo
Last week, Putin put his strategic nuclear forces on high alert, sparking angry reactions around the world.
“Russian leaders have now made repeated not-so-veiled references to their nuclear arsenal in hopes of dissuading the West from bolstering Ukrainian defenses,” said Cornell University’s Kreps.
“The problem is that their approach to doing so has eroded the nuclear taboo that has existed for decades,” he opined.
Source: Gestion
Ricardo is a renowned author and journalist, known for his exceptional writing on top-news stories. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he is known for his ability to deliver breaking news and insightful analysis on the most pressing issues of the day.
