Putin remains for a while: he can extend his mandate until 2036 and there is almost no way to dismiss him

The name of Vladimir Putin once again resonates strongly and in the form of a threat in the West, and He is far from losing the power that has sustained his latest decisionssuch as the invasion -and consequently the war- of Ukraine or the mobilization of its “nuclear deterrent forces” in the face of warnings from the Atlantic Alliance. Since he first assumed leadership of Russia, the nation’s top official has made do everything possible to secure your positionemploying increasingly controversial measures.

To understand the magnitude of the power that Putin currently holds, as well as his political ambition, it is necessary to go back to his beginnings in the leadership, more than 20 years ago. At the end of 1999, the sudden resignation of Boris Yeltsin due to a corruption scandal led Putin to occupy the interim Presidency of the Russian Federation, while retaining the position of head of government. In March of the year 2000 he rises with the triumph in the presidential elections, assuming office until 2004 and then until 2008 after revalidating the support in new elections.

Things begin to change, precisely, from 2008. In that year, Putin leaves the Russian presidency and becomes prime minister of the nation. The ‘blame’ for this change in position lies with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, which does not allow him to extend his position as head of the country for any longer – at this time, the legislatures have a maximum life of four years until the new electoral call. This is stated, concisely, in the third point of Article 81 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation: “The same person cannot serve more than two terms in a row.”

Although a year earlier, in 2007, he already openly admits his position in favor of lengthening Russia’s term of command to “five, six or seven years”, decides to wait to intervene the Magna Carta. Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s confidant, wins the elections and becomes President of Russia. Already at that time, the opposition accuses Putin of maneuvering so that Medvedev ‘saves’ his position for the next elections. The truth is that, in this period, the head of government now commanded by Putin acquires more powers.

Meanwhile, Medvedev officially presents the constitutional amendments to extend the presidential and parliamentary mandates to six years from the next legislature. The measure is approved amid serious criticism of Putin, who is again accused of using the newly appointed leader to pave the way for a new legislature led by Russia for a longer period, and is inscribed in the first point of Article 81 of the reformed Constitution thus: “The President of the Russian Federation shall be elected for six years by citizens of the Russian Federation on the basis of secret direct universal suffrage”.

During Putin’s fourth term, Russia voted in a referendum on a package of amendments that allowed him to stand for two more consecutive legislatures.

Putin thus takes the first step to establish himself in office and, as was already expected throughout Russia, in 2011 – the last year of Medvedev’s government – he announced his candidacy to preside over the country for the third time. He does it again: in 2012 he is crowned with a wide victory and, again, between harsh accusations of electoral fraud; now, in addition, with a duration of six years and with the possibility of being re-elected for another six. Putin recovers the leadership of Russia, this time until 2018 -it is at this time, by the way, when the relationship with Ukraine is most tense and he orders the occupation of Crimea-.

In that year, he is re-elected for the fourth time with more than 75% of the votes (his best election result to date). Quite a success, yes, but it is the second legislature followed by him in this second period, and before him the ghost of mandatory withdrawal looms again. Constitution in hand, despite having extended the duration of his administration to six years, he is still unable to attend the next elections after two consecutive terms. He cannot stand as a candidate in the 2024 elections. However, he is once again working to modify the rules that dictate this. And he succeeds.

In July 2020, almost all of Russia votes in a referendum in favor of a pack of up to 200 amendments including one that will increase the purchasing power of the working class and another that will allow Putin – only him – stand for two additional terms when in 2024 finished its fourth term. With this reform, the current head of state will be able to remain in power until 2036 – by the time that date arrives, he will be 84 years old. With this referendum it goes further: that series of amendments also includes another that increases the power of any Russian president. That is, if Russia already harbored a system that gives Putin great power, after the referendum has even more.

Can Putin be fired or undergo a motion of censure?

Considering his political trajectory and the -at least- strange maneuvers to extend himself in power, It seems very unlikely that, today, Putin can leave the Presidency on his own foot. Article 92.2 of the Russian Constitution also says so: “The president shall cease the exercise of his powers early in the event that he resigns, is definitively unable to exercise his powers for health reasons, or resigns from office.” But do Russian laws include other formulas that pose a different scenario than the current one? At first, it also seems complicated.

To assess this possibility, it is necessary to go to Article 93.1 of the Magna Carta, where it is indicated that the president “may be removed from office by the Council of the Federation, solely for reasons of having been accused of treason against the State, presented by the State Duma, or having committed another serious crime”. This must be “confirmed by the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation” considering the existence of “indications of crime” in their actions and “by the conclusion of the Constitutional Court”. As detailed in the second point of that same article, the initiative to present accusations against Putin, as well as the decision to dismiss him, depend on the State Duma and the Federation Council.

But beware of how both bodies should proceed: “The decision of the State Duma and the Federation Council must be adopted by two-thirds of the votes of the total number in each Chamber and at the initiative of no less than one-third of Deputies of the Duma of State and with the existence of the conclusion of a Special Commission, formed by the State Duma”. A formula that, right now, benefits Putin, since it so happens that neither in the Duma nor in the Federation Council the required minimum is reached by the Constitution to even present such a proposal, given the majority that Putin’s party presents in both chambers.

If they did give the numbers, the impeachment decision adopted by the Council “should be adopted within three months, at the latest, after the indictment against the President was presented by the State Duma.” And it is added: “In the event that the Duma does not adopt that decision within that period, it is considered that the accusation against the President was denied“. Therefore, it seems that the Russian Parliament does not have a power comparable to that of Putin to, at least, question its national and international policy. Is there any other option?

Although minimal, the judicial. The decision of the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, to request the opening of proceedings for the invasion of Ukraine by Russia could lead to the investigation and trial of Putin and his political and military leadership for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. His prosecution could open a legal gap in the Russian federal system that would allow, under very specific assumptions, to judge the head of state in the country. Even so, another scenario as complex as the previous ones would be entered. Article 91 sums it up: “The President of the Russian Federation enjoys immunity“.