What impact does the closure of airspaces have on aircraft traffic?

The reciprocal closure of their airspaces by the European Union (EU) and Russia has only a limited impact on Russian transport in the sector, as European airlines will be forced to make long and expensive detours to reach Asia.

Measures in force

States are sovereign to prohibit overflight of their territories. The 27 members of the EU announced on Sunday night the closure of their airspace to Russian companies and aircraft, in retaliation for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Specifically, no Russian plane can “land, take off or fly over the territory of the EU”, according to the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

However, certain flights may be authorized, in particular for humanitarian purposes.

Canada and European countries, such as the United Kingdom, Moldova, Norway and Iceland, made similar decisions. Switzerland followed them on Monday, “with the sole exception of flights for humanitarian, medical or diplomatic purposes.”

Russia, for its part, retorted by prohibiting, “except with special permission”, its airspace to companies from 35 European countries and Canada.

In addition, the EU also prohibited the export of aeronautical services and equipment to Russia, which affects the maintenance of the aircraft of the European manufacturer Airbus in Russian territory, regardless of the flag of the devices.

The consequences for Russia

Closing the European sky to Russian planes “doesn’t actually change much” for Moscow, said Paul Chiambaretto, an air transport specialist at Montpellier Business School. “Its ties with the outside world are marginal due to the importance of the Russian domestic market”, he stresses.

Before the pandemic, the domestic market accounted for 70% of flights taking off in Russia. This figure increased to more than 80% ‘a posteriori’. And the first foreign destination, Turkey, before the health crisis was just 2.9% of all flights departing from Russia.

However, the closure of European skies to its aircraft fleet deprives Russia, and in particular its national airline, Aeroflot, of its most important foreign market, but “the vastness of the country makes it very insensitive to a blockade”. although “this contributes to Russia’s isolation at the international level,” Chiambaretto said.

In addition, Russia has a door to the world through its southern flank, in particular through Turkey.

The closure of airspace will also prolong flights to Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave between Lithuania and Poland. “Russian aviation companies will have to use airways that pass through neutral waters of the Baltic Sea,” according to its aviation regulator, Rosaviatsa.

Longest flights to Asia

For the Old Continent this means a return to the situation in times of the Cold War. “Before 1991 we were not allowed to fly over Siberia,” recalls Geoffroy Bouvet, president of the French Aviation Professionals Association (APNA).

Except if there was a stopover in Moscow, “we passed through Anchorage, in Alaska (USA), to reach Japan, and through the south of the Himalayas to reach Beijing.”

In his opinion, the pilots will transit the “polar route” or the “southern route” to reach Korea, Japan and China. Each of these means at least an hour and a half more flight.

A Boeing 777, the device most used on flights to these destinations, consumes eight tons of fuel per hour of flight, according to Bouvet. Therefore, there will be other additional costs for the companies, which usually spend almost a quarter of their expenses on the supply of kerosene.

Gulf companies, whose airports act as “hubs” between Europe and Asia, could “take advantage” of this situation and capture part of the European customers, as well as Turkish Airlines, from Istanbul, Chiambaretto points out.

But, in this context, Japan and China also continue to be the destinations with the strictest travel restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The number of flights between Europe and the Asia-Pacific region fell 44% in 2021, compared to 2019, and these represented only 2.7% of flights departing from European airports, according to Eurocontrol — the organization Union for the safety of air navigation.