USA. or Russia? The dilemma of the Persian Gulf countries after the invasion of Ukraine

In the past, choosing a side in the Russian crisis-ukrainian would not have given rise to doubts for the rich monarchies of the Gulfprotected for a long time by United States. But today, the strengthening of ties with Russia It forces them to find a balance.

If the West is unanimous in its condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Arab monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have remained mostly silent.

Their reticence is explained by the importance of issues such as energy, finances and security, according to experts.

“Not only are economic ties being strengthened, but also security ties between those countries and Moscow,” Anne Gadel, an expert on foreign policy issues at the French Montaigne Institute, told AFP.

On Friday, the United Arab Emirates abstained along with China and India in the UN Security Council vote on a resolution tabled by the United States and Albania demanding Russia withdraw its troops from Ukraine.

After the vote, which was subject to the Russian veto, the Emirati agency WAM reported a telephone call between the heads of diplomacy of the Emirates and the United States.

On its side, Russia announced a meeting Monday in Moscow between the Russian and Emirati foreign ministers.

Within the GCC, Kuwait and Qatar have refrained from criticizing Russia since the invasion that began Thursday, denouncing only the violence.

Saudi Arabia, the main GCC country, Oman and Bahrain have been silent so far.

“Finding a balance will be especially difficult for the Emirates (…) as they currently have a seat on the UN Security Council,” Gadel stresses.

ideological ally

The United States, which has military bases in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, has presented itself for decades as the defender of the GCC countries against possible threats. Both sides have a common enemy: Iran.

But Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have had more troubled relations with Washington in recent years, over human rights, arms deals and the conflict in Yemen.

US intelligence services accused Riyadh of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. In December 2021, Abu Dhabi threatened the United States with canceling a mega-contract to purchase F-35 fighter jets.

In addition, the Joe Biden administration somewhat limited its military interventions in the region. He also removed the Yemeni rebels from his list of “terrorist organizations,” drawing the ire of Saudi Arabia, which is fighting them in Yemen.

The Gulf countries “understand that they need to diversify their alliances to compensate for the perceptible withdrawal of the United States from the region,” according to Anne Gadel.

“Russia is seen as an ideological ally, while US human rights demands become problematic,” says Andreas Krieg, a Middle East researcher at King’s College London.

“Eggs in the basket”

Despite growing cooperation with Russia on security, most GCC countries “would put their eggs (on that issue) in the American basket,” Krieg estimates. But “they began to diversify ties into other areas with the Americans’ competitors and adversaries,” he adds.

Trade between Russia and the GCC countries, especially with the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, reached US$5 billion in 2021, according to official figures.

In their role as major players in the energy markets, most of the GCC countries maintain partner producer relations with Russia. Riyadh and Moscow lead the OPEC+ alliance, which strictly controls production to contain prices.

OPEC+ is made up of 23 members, the 13 countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten allies.

“OPEC member countries are in a difficult diplomatic situation”, because the maintenance of the OPEC+ agreement, which controls production, “is clearly at the forefront of their considerations”, Ellen Wald, a researcher at the group, tells AFP. Atlantic Council think tank.

“The Gulf countries are afraid of affecting this relationship and seek to maintain Russian participation in OPEC+ (…). If Russia leaves the alliance, the deal will likely fall apart,” she says.

“Remaining silent on the Russian action in Ukraine is probably the best course of action at the moment, but this pragmatic position may become untenable if (the Gulf countries) are pressured (to react) by Western leaders,” adds Ellen Wald. .