Russia seeks allies in Latin America in full military offensive in Ukraine

With the exceptions of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, Latin America turned its back on Russia in the invasion of Ukraine, but Moscow can keep an ace up its sleeve and surprise with a provocation “symbolic” in the region to challenge the United States.

Lately, even when the drums of war were already being heard in Ukraine, Russia has been making a frantic diplomatic deployment through Latin America, a zone of influence of the United States, in search of allies.

Last week, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, received his Brazilian counterpart, Jair Bolsonaro, in Moscow, where he had previously met with the Argentine, Alberto Fernández, who even offered him that his country be a “gateway to Latin America”.

But as soon as the tanks entered Ukraine on Thursday, both rejected the use of armed force, as did most countries in the region.

Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, is not surprised. “The trade relationship with Russia is very limited and the risk of aligning with it is not worth the benefit”, he declared.

Putin has three allies in the region -Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua- who sided with him more than anything.”by ideological and transactional interests”, says Christopher Sabatini, a researcher at the Chatham House think tank.

The same day that the invasion of Ukraine began, an official Russian delegation, headed by the president of the Lower House of Parliament, Viacheslav Volodin, arrived in Nicaragua to meet with President Daniel Ortega, who a week earlier had discussed economic issues. and military with the Russian deputy prime minister, Yuri Borisov.

“Barking dog, little biter”

Russia, which a month ago threatened a military deployment in Cuba and Venezuela, seeks to strengthen “his friends to show that he is not isolated internationally and to complicate the strategic position of the United States by projecting a threat in the region”, explains Evan Ellis, professor of Latin American studies at the Institute for Strategic Studies at the US Army War College.

Let the Kremlin carry out “something symbolic is very likely” because he has said it several times, says Ellis.

But “barking dog, little biter”, nuances, however, the expert, who opts for “something improvised, for the purpose of projecting a threat, rather than substantial or well planned”. “Some kind of limited military provocation or the signing of an agreement to show their ability to project themselves militarily in the region“, Explain.

The bloody military offensive in Ukraine imposed on Russia a battery of sanctions to inflict economic damage “both immediate and long-term”, in the words of US President Joe Biden.

With an economy under sanctions that severely impact its oil exports and its financial system, “Russia will likely not have the resources or logistical capacity to sustain a significant military presence.” in the Americas for a long time, says Ellis.

China on the prowl

In recent years, Latin America has become more politically fragmented, which means that “relations not only with Russia, but also with China, be more diverse”, Sabatini points out. and the new war “will test those new relationships”.

The United States, whose relations with Russia and China are experiencing their lowest hours, is balancing to strengthen ties in the region and at the same time combat corruption in some countries, especially in Central America, from where waves of immigrants arrive fleeing misery and they seek a better future.

And the rise in wheat prices, which are hitting records never seen since 2008, and oil prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will be especially noticeable in these Central American and Caribbean countries.

“For them, the shortage will probably mean a rise in the prices of critical imports and the risk of an increase in popular discontent,” Sabatini warns.

Russia will depend more economically on China, which has long-term goals in Latin America, “such as replacing the United States as the main economic partner,” says Shifter.

In this war, Beijing “will maintain a fairly neutral position and examine what its rivals are doing,” he adds. “It will closely monitor the evolution of this crisis to take advantage of any weakness in the United States to expand its own influence in the region, which needs a lot of economic support.”