Could Russia attack other countries?

The Ukraine-Russia conflict occupies the front pages of European newspapers. The Russian military intervention in Ukraine is leaving terrible images in which citizens try to seek refuge and flee from the conflict. In the meantime, Vladimir Putin remains focused on his goal: expand the zone of Russian influence. Will it therefore attack other countries?

“I could, surely. But I don’t think an occupation process is being considered“. So points out Maximiliano Fuentes Codera, doctor in Contemporary History and professor at the University of Girona. The expert believes that Vladimir will continue to try to maintain and expand his zone of influence. “If necessary through war. But not as a form of occupation,” he points out.

The PhD in Contemporary History believes that the invasion of Ukraine has nothing to do with the annexations of the past but that Russia sees it as a way to have a puppet government, as in the case of Belarus. Although the historian assures that for the time being he will not attack another country, he points out that one possibility could be the Baltic States. Why? “Because it is the other former Soviet area of ​​influence and an important NATO area,” argues the expert, who warns that at the moment there is nothing that makes him think firmly.

Returning to the current conflict, Maximiliano Fuentes Codera points out that Ukraine-Russia is a geopolitical problem. Russia attacks because it considers it an interference by NATO by not respecting the Paris agreements. According to these agreements, which took place post cold war, NATO would not seek to influence ex-Soviet territories, such as Ukraine. NATO, the United States and the European Union see it the other way around: they consider that Russia has interfered in sovereign territories, such as Ukraine. This is illustrated by the expert, who points out the consequences that the conflict could have worldwide.

Powers have two options: one policy of appeasement and trying to please Putin or stand up. They could also opt for stronger sanctions and even a military intervention by powers that would change the entire political map, says Fuentes. In this sense, he acknowledges that China does not seem to intervene, but assures that it is still an open process. “In the event that Russia can occupy a part of Ukraine, the door would be opened to other world conflicts: such as China and Taiwan.” The expert believes that everything indicates that other world powers will intervene to defend the territory. “I wouldn’t dare say otherwise,” he adds.

The historian Pablo Delgado points directly to nuclear weapons as the element that can decide the fate of this conflict. “As a deterrent, but ultimately,” he adds. The expert recalls that Ukraine does not have, but NATO does, as he recalled French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian this Thursday. Delgado believes that Putin is not going to set foot in Atlanticist countries for this matter. “That is why I think we have to look at Finland, which also borders Russia and does not belong to NATO. Although Putin justified in his speech on Monday the theory of vital space to occupy Ukraine, Finland does not have the same cultural and ethnic kinship with Russia. However, like Ukraine, one of the reasons for joining the Alliance is provocations towards Moscow.”

Thus, the historian points out that The West has to advance in three aspects: limit energy dependence, increase military defense and take advantage of this crisis to unite the member states of NATO and the European Union. In this sense, he recalls that “strategies have been worked on in recent years to contain energy dependence on Russia and offer military resistance in the event of hostility, increasing some countries arms budgets like Sweden or Poland”. The European Union and the United States are also looking for other gas suppliers, perhaps more expensive economically speaking, but safer, in addition to the construction of nuclear power plants in Estonia, Poland and France to guarantee energy supply, he explains.

Thus, the historian also looks at Russia. “Let’s keep in mind that Russian gas and oil account for 2/3 of the country’s exportsand Putin does not want to lose his European clients, which does not detract from the defense of its borders against the interpretation of NATO’s advance to the East, especially after the 2004 enlargement of the European Uniona preliminary step for the entry of Poland, the Baltic republics, Bulgaria or Romania into the Alliance”. Delgado agrees with Maximiliano Fuentes Codera: lThe occupation of Ukraine is one more step in the Sino-Russian strategy to overthrow the geopolitical context of the United Statesbecause the Asian giant has been harassing for years in a very similar way to Taiwan, an ally of the West.