Russian Offensive Is A Calculated Tactical Move To Invade Ukraine, Experts Say

The start of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine seeks to prepare the ground for the massive mobilization of ground forces to surround the Ukrainian army concentrated in the east and invade the country, according to experts and military personnel consulted.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday ordered the offensive, accompanied by airstrikes, after massing 180,000 troops around Ukraine in recent weeks.

Moscow, which commands overwhelming firepower compared to a Ukraine with few anti-aircraft capabilities, claims it has already destroyed 74 military installations, including 11 airfields, and Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defense systems.

These attacks reached the capital Kiev; the city of Kramatorsk (east), which is home to the headquarters of the Ukrainian army; Kharkov, the country’s second city near the Russian border; Odessa, facing the Black Sea; and Mariupol, the closest city to the front line.

“The Russians began a battlefield preparation phase called ‘shaping’”, consisting of “neutralize all air defenses, air bases; suppress means of electronic warfare”, among others, explains a high-ranking French military officer, who requested anonymity.

Russia seeksgain air superiority before launching large-scale ground maneuvers from Belarus, [la península de] Crimea and the east and conquer the bridges”, adds the military man, for whom the objective of Moscow is “occupy all of Ukraine”.

On the ground, Russian soldiers have already begun incursions in the direction of Kiev, but also around the pro-Russian separatist territories of Donetsk and Lugansk, whose independence Russia has just recognized.

hybrid warfare

“We are witnessing at the moment a rapid military campaign that seeks to divide, surround and destroy the Ukrainian forces through several simultaneous assaults launched during the night” from the north, east and south, estimates Franz-Stefan Gady.

For this military expert from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), based in London, “Russia seeks to quickly conclude the conflict.”

“Ukrainian forces are lined up along the current border of the so-called republics [de Donetsk y Lugansk]in the trenches”, abounds François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Strategic Research Foundation (FRS), in Paris.

However, “Russian armor seem to want to surround” this area known as the Donbas “from the west, coming from the north”.

In parallel, entering from the Crimea in the south, they will try to join forces to “isolate the Ukrainian army opposite Donbas, neutralize it and force it to surrender”, points out the French military source.

In a move characteristic of “hybrid” conflicts, Russia’s conventional offensive was preceded by an extensive disinformation campaign and a series of cyberattacks.

Several attacks launched since Wednesday have rendered inaccessible the websites of several Ukrainian banks and ministries, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Kiev attributes these cyberattacks to Russian operators, which Moscow denies. Western countries often accuse Russia of launching large-scale hacking.

Moscow starts from the principle that the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will not intervene to prevent its military action in Ukraine, which has been seeking to integrate this military organization for years, according to experts.

“Some 75% of Russia’s ground forces are in or around Ukraine. If they feared an attack from NATO or a Western country, Moscow would not have done that.”, according to Gaddy.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that the Alliance has no troops in Ukraine and no plans to deploy them in that country, although he announced a reinforcement of his troops in allied countries neighboring Russia.