Ukraine crisis: Where will Vladimir Putin stop?

Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has recognized the independence of separatist enclaves in eastern Ukraine and has ordered the dispatch of “peacekeeping” troops, the big question is: where will he stop?

Western countries have been warning for weeks that Moscow could be preparing a possible massive invasion to conquer its neighbor. Russia denies this, and Putin’s moves so far have stayed far from the anticipated scenario.

However, a televised speech by Putin on Monday night – in which he called the Ukrainian state and its leaders illegitimate – raised fears that he may seek to subjugate Ukraine by force.

Here are three possible scenarios:

1. Secure Existing Separatist Enclaves, Then Pause

While many commentators believe sending troops into separatist enclaves could be a first step toward a broader invasion, others say it could also be a place to stop – or at least pause on the ground – as it tries to press to Ukraine in other ways.

“That takes him out of the ‘cornered, he has to invade’ scenario. He has done something. He can claim a victory for his domestic audience,” said Tim Ripley, author of “Little Green Men: Putin’s Wars Since 2014″.

Ripley said he believes the most likely steps — rather than immediately trying to grab more territory — would be a “constant campaign” to put pressure on Ukraine in other ways, such as a naval blockade of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.

The goal would be to intimidate the Ukrainians by maintaining a permanent crisis, while showing that Kiev’s Western allies are “a paper tiger” who can offer little real help.

Russia has already achieved some big goals, such as forcing NATO allies to publicly acknowledge that they will not send troops to defend Ukraine, and getting permission from neighboring Belarus to have a large force indefinitely.

“Belarus has been a great movement to change the balance in the region. It completely transforms the way NATO has to defend the Baltic states,” said Ripley.

2. Expand separatist territory and limit the conflict to eastern Ukraine

Separatists in eastern Ukraine control less than half of the two provinces they claim, and Ukrainian forces oppose them on a heavily fortified front line frozen by a ceasefire badly violated since 2015.

Without launching a massive invasion of all of Ukraine, Russia could try to expand the breakaway territory. Moscow has given mixed signals in the past 24 hours about whether its recognition of the separatist enclaves also amounts to accepting their claims for more territory in Ukraine.

One target could be Mariupol, the main port in eastern Ukraine, which the separatists failed to attack in 2014-2015. Capturing it would allow Moscow to unite Russian-controlled Crimea overland with separatist enclaves and secure full control of the Sea of ​​Azov coastline, a strategic goal in itself and one that would also put economic pressure on Kiev.

But a turf war in eastern Ukraine, while likely to bring harsh international sanctions on Russia, would achieve only limited strategic gains. On its own, it would not achieve Moscow’s goal of installing a more accommodating government in Kiev.

“Capturing six villages outside of Donetsk: it doesn’t lower the price of eggs,” Ripley noted.

3. Large-scale invasion

Western countries, especially the United States and the United Kingdom, have been warning for several weeks of the probability of a much larger operation by Russia to capture all of Ukraine, or at least advance on Kiev to overthrow the government.

Some commentators have seen Putin’s provocative televised speech on Monday night as proof that he will not be satisfied unless Ukraine is run by a government that recognizes Russian hegemony.

“It seems likely that Putin has much more in mind than simply taking a bite out of eastern Ukraine and taking formal responsibility for the territories he already controlled de facto,” wrote Shaun Walker, a journalist for the British newspaper The Guardian and author of “The Long hangover, Putin’s new Russia and the ghosts of the past”.

“Putin’s final words, to the effect that if Kiev did not stop the violence, they would be responsible for the ‘consequent bloodshed’, were ominous in the extreme. It just sounded like a declaration of war,” he added.