Russia is starting to split the EU again

By Lionel Laurent

Just a few days ago, European authorities felt pretty good about their united position on Russian troops on the Ukraine border. But the quiet hope was that Moscow would not bring them to the brink of having to actually carry out their threat of sanctions.

This week, when all the hype over China’s Winter Olympics ended, Russia did just that, deciding to recognize two breakaway areas in eastern Ukraine and send in troops.

It was a calculated slap across the face on several levels. The recent diplomacy of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, had achieved several “promises” from Vladimir Putin, including an eventual withdrawal and a ceasefire in the disputed areas. Now, that has apparently evaporated.

The 2015 Minsk agreements, which had turned a heated conflict in the Donbas region into a nominally frozen one, were also ripped apart by Moscow. Europe will now try to contain both sides through a diplomatic process that has gone sour.

And the threats accumulated by a concordance of Western powers, from sanctions on Russia to more support for Ukraine, have failed to dissuade Putin from acting to redraw the borders of a country in the zone between the EU and the historic “backyard” From Russia.

The chilling thing is how little time has passed since the last time “war came to europe”. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 provoked a diplomatic response from the EU – currently 185 individuals and 48 entities maintain EU sanctions for threatening Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty and independence – but it did not change the reality on the ground.

Nor did it reduce the EU’s dependence on Russia for 40% of its gas. Over the years, the desire to get Russia out of the cold through trade ties or geopolitical détente has persisted.

But this time, something finally seems to have broken. In keeping with a recent sense of unity, the West’s response to Putin’s latest move has been a swift promise of more sanctions. Germany has called for certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to be halted, while the UK has targeted the banking sector.

But Russia will continue to test this resolve, betting that those existing trade ties will be to its advantage in the game of “divide and conquer.”

Already in the background, cracks are emerging within the EU due to sanctions between actors with aggressive and moderate positions. Does this count as ainvasion” or one “incursion”? Is it time to impose the “mother of all sanctions” in the terminology of the United States – which targets a series of sectors, from banking to technology – or the punishment more “managedWhat are the officials in Brussels pointing out? If it is the latter, which seems increasingly likely, Putin will not pay the full cost of Western retaliation, partly by design but also out of self-interest.

Energy is the real problem. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has rightly acknowledged that letting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline operate normally in the current situation would be unacceptable. Yet, as the Bruegel think tank has pointed out, giving up Russian gas supply without curbing demand seems impossible.

Researchers at the European Central Bank estimate that a 10% cut in gas supply would reduce gross value added in the eurozone by around 0.7%. Making use of the “gas weapon” has turned out to favor Moscow, as rising energy prices have benefited the national coffers.

If the West has any chance of raising the price of the war for Russia, the Europeans must strive to move away from Russian gas. That could include diversification into other sources such as nuclear or gas supply diversification and the creation of a pan-European strategic reserve.

Italy has floated the idea of ​​excluding energy from sanctions, which would run counter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s call to directly address the EU’s reliance on Russian supplies. Less unity means that any sanctions will be less effective and Putin’s ability to exploit them will be greater.

Sanctions alone are not an answer to the long-term future of Ukraine, whose location alongside a potentially new form of the Iron Curtain has kept it outside NATO and the EU and exposed it to effective dismemberment without deterrence. real.

The Minsk agreements only froze a situation where Ukraine wants full sovereignty while the separatists want to keep their territory. But for the EU to speak with one voice, while addressing dependency, would be a start.