Crisis Russia – Ukraine: what should happen to avoid a “third world war”

Despite the fact that Russia has been announcing that it is withdrawing its troops from the border with Ukraine, the sensation of an armed conflict continues to sound strong. The consequences of a third world war in Europe would not only be economic, but also the human losses would be devastating.

Given the terrible outcome of an armed conflict that would involve more than two nations, the question remains whether there is any way to avoid this confrontation with diplomatic solutions that are peaceful and favorable to Ukraine and Russia.

The Minsk Agreements

As detailed by the BBC, some Western politicians have suggested that reviving the agreements concluded in the Belarusian capital, Minskcould provide a solution to the crisis.

“Minsk is the only way that allows us to build peace”, French President Emmanuel Macron said last week; while the British defense secretary, ben wallacepointed out to the aforementioned outlet that restoring Minsk would be “a solid way to de-escalate”.

On September 5, 2014, a treaty was signed to end the war in eastern Ukraine. Representatives of that country, together with Russia, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the Lugansk People’s Republic (LNR) agreed to a ceasefire in the region of donbas.

However, it would not be so easy to get to this point, since Kiev considers that reviving Minsk would be a shorthand way of ruling out that Ukraine join the NATO without the members of this organization having to say so explicitly.

Could Putin be persuaded by the West?

A chance that Russia retreat in its attempt to invade Ukraine is to achieve that Vladimir Putin recognize that the costs of a war would outweigh the benefits to your country. And it is that, as mentioned a moment ago, the economic and human losses would be terrible.

Even if it achieves military advances, the diplomatic setbacks with other nations would be greater. But for this to happen, the Russian president will have to be persuaded by the nations that make up the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Under this premise, Western countries would have to allow Putin to claim a diplomatic victory, recognizing him as a peaceful protagonist and that he was not willing to accept the military provocations of the NATO.

Russia it would remind the world that it is a great power and deepen its presence in Belarus.

The difficulty with this theory is that it would be just as easy to argue that Putin failed, notes the BBC.

Ukraine could become neutral, like Finland

Finland assumed its independence and neutrality during the outbreak of the cold war. It is currently an independent, sovereign, democratic state and remains outside the NATO. Is it a likely scenario for Ukraine?

On the one hand, it could satisfy Putin’s wish that this nation will not belong to the NATO; however, since Kyiv It is not well seen, since it would have to abandon its Euro-Atlantic aspirations such as belonging to the European Union (EU).

Most likely, Putin will not agree with Ukraine’s neutrality, since this country is key for Russia to obtain maritime access, since the Crimean peninsula is located there and, in it, the Russian Fleet of Black Seain addition to constituting an access to the Middle East and the Caucasus.

Possibly there is still the possibility of avoiding a conflict due to the fact that the setting for this would be Europe, a continent that has already experienced two world wars and that would not sit idly by watching a third war break out, the consequences of which would be unimaginable.

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