The European Union (EU) is preparing various responses to any new moves by Russia to destabilize Ukraine, but the bloc does not know exactly what Moscow plans to do, a senior EU official said.
The official said that the US talks with Russia “were not bearing much fruit”, but that the dialogue with President Vladimir Putin was still open through the leaders of Germany and France.
It was also claimed that the EU was looking for alternative sources of energy in case Russia cuts off supplies to Europe. The bloc was preparing for the arrival of refugees in case Russia invades Ukraine, the official added.
“Russia is trying to show that it is the police of the region,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity but has had phone calls with Putin in the past.
“Moscow’s criticism against Ukraine is this idea that the people (in Ukraine) opted for liberal democracy, values, principles and freedoms.”
The official said they thought Putin had an “obsession” with Ukraine, including with what Moscow said were assurances made in the 1990s that NATO would not expand eastward. NATO and the United States deny that any such promise was made.
Moscow’s involvement in Ukraine, as well as other former Soviet republics, were attempts to “undermine and destabilize” countries that aspired to closer ties with the West than with the Kremlin, the official said.
“This is Russia’s attempt to show that the West is unreliable and that values are not sound.”
Speaking a day after Washington said Russia could invade Ukraine at any time under a surprise pretext, the official said the tougher the EU sanctions against Russia in the event of a military intervention, the greater the setback for the bloc. if Moscow retaliates.
While some in the EU want to impose harsh sanctions to deter Russia from any attack, others say that would amount to an escalation of tensions, the official said.
EU sanctions require unanimity, and the bloc has long been divided between those advocating greater political engagement and doing business with Russia, and those seeking a tougher stance.
The official said that 40% of the EU’s gas comes from Russia and that the bloc is in talks with Norway and Qatar, among others, to increase energy supply if necessary.
The source said that the EU was hoping to decide on further macroeconomic support for Ukraine and that Kiev was seeking more political support, including to strengthen its relationship with the EU.
In recent months, Russia has mobilized more than 100,000 troops around Ukraine’s borders but denies its invasion plans. It demands what it calls security guarantees from the West.
Following street protests that ousted a former Ukrainian president allied with Russia, Moscow annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea in 2014. It has since sided with rebels fighting government troops in eastern Ukraine, a conflict in which, according to Kiev, 15,000 people have died to date.
Source: Gestion

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