What is the US “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan?

USA clarified on Friday that it maintains “unchanged” its policy towards Taiwan, after the president Joe Biden seemed to cast doubt on the “strategic ambiguity” that has so far maintained stability in the region.

What is “strategic ambiguity” and why would a firm and clear engagement with Taiwan be risky?

Two rival Chinas

Taiwan separated from China in 1949, when the nationalist forces of Chang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang took refuge on the former island of Formosa to establish the ROC, after losing the civil war to the communists of Mao Tse Tung, who took the continent.

Taiwan, which enjoys a democratic system, is governed independently, while the People’s Republic of China promises to regain what it considers a rogue province.

For the first 30 years, Beijing regularly bombed the Taiwanese islets closest to the mainland. Then, in 1992, both sides reached a “consensus” based on the “one China” principle, while reserving the right to make different interpretations.

The autonomy of the island took root over time. President Tsai Ing-wen considers Taiwan “already independent” and rejects the one-China principle.

The Kuomitang, now in opposition, is in favor of a rapprochement with Beijing and adheres to the “1992 consensus.”

Diplomatic change

In the 1950s, most countries did not recognize the ROC, but things began to change in the 1960s and 1970s, when it became clear that the Kuomitang would not return to power in Beijing and that relations needed to be established. with Mao’s China.

In 1979, the United States established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China at the expense of Taiwan. At the same time, they adopted a deliberately opaque policy towards Taipei, known as “strategic ambiguity,” which refrains from clearly stating under what circumstances they would intervene militarily to defend the island.

That policy, framed in the Taiwan Relations Act, avoids provoking Beijing, which could see it as a pretext to adopt a more aggressive stance towards Taiwan, but also curb any inclination by Taipei to formally declare independence.

Questioned ambiguity

This ambiguity has so far allowed some stability in the region, but in the face of Beijing’s growing aggressiveness, some US experts, such as the influential president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, believe that “the time has come for the United States to pursue a policy of strategic clarity ”.

Under the authority of Xi Jinping, China modernized its military in recent years. The Chinese president, who is expected to run for a third term next year, recently reaffirmed that Taiwan’s reunification with mainland China was “inevitable.”

He promised it would be done by “peaceful” means, but the US military sees Taiwan as Beijing’s next target after taking Hong Kong and fears it will be difficult to defend the island against a Chinese military, whose accelerated modernization they watch with concern.