Russia and Ukraine are immersed in a crisis that threatens to spark a new military conflict over accusations that Vladimir Putin’s government is preparing an invasion of its pro-Western neighbor.
The current tensions have historical roots. Here is a summary.
common roots
The two countries share a thousand-year history, dating back to the so-called Kievan Rus, a principality that existed from the 9th to the 13th centuries.
This entity straddled contemporary Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Moscow considers this area as its cradle.
In a text published in July, Putin stated that “Russians and Ukrainians are a single nation” that belongs to “the same historical and spiritual space.”
In his annual press conference, he claimed that Ukraine had been “created by Lenin” in the early years of the Soviet Union, a way of denying the specificities of this nation, which he presented as artificial.
Two languages
Moscow regularly accuses the Kiev authorities of wanting to “de-Russify” their country by favoring the Ukrainian language.
Ukraine retorts that it is only correcting the Russification forced under the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.
Ukrainian and Russian, which belong to the same East Slavic language family, have many similarities, but also differences.
Ukrainian dominates in western and central Ukraine, and Russian in eastern and southern Ukraine.
After the independence of Ukraine after the fall of the USSR in 1991, Ukrainian became the only state language.
Although Ukrainians are mostly bilingual, Ukrainian is considered the mother tongue by 78% of the population and Russian by 18%, according to a recent survey.
But the use of Russian has declined in response to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, and a law passed in 2019 requires the Ukrainization of various sectors, including trade and services.
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Famine
Among the main historical facts in dispute between Russia and Ukraine is the “Holodomor”, the great famine that killed several million people in 1932 and 1933 in Ukraine.
Both Kiev and historians describe this tragedy as a “genocide” orchestrated by Stalin against the Ukrainian people who resisted the collectivization of the land.
But Moscow and other historians reject this characterization, placing the events in the broader context of famines that also claimed many victims in Central Asia and Russia.
This controversy is unlikely to abate because the Kremlin, which espouses a glorified view of Russian history, tries to downplay Stalinist crimes.
The divisions of the Donbas
The Donbas, a region in eastern Ukraine, is the epicenter of the conflict that has pitted Kiev’s forces against pro-Russian separatists backed by Moscow since 2014. This mining and industrial basin is economically vital to Ukraine.
It is also at the center of a cultural battle between Kiev and Moscow, which argues that the region, along with much of eastern Ukraine, is populated by Russian-speakers who need to be protected from Ukrainian nationalism.
However, the Russophilia of the region is due, at least in part, to the forced Russification and repopulation of the region after World War II, with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Russian workers.
This influx, along with the victims of the war and the Holodomor, changed the ethnic and cultural balance.
The situation in Crimea
Even more complex is the situation in Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014 after a pro-Western revolution in Ukraine.
In Russia, the peninsula is considered an integral part of the country.
Under the USSR, generations of Russians vacationed there, helping to develop a strong attachment to the region.
Crimea was part of the Russian Empire from the 18th century and then, under the Soviet Union, it was integrated into Russia until it was annexed to Soviet Ukraine in 1954 by a decree of Nikita Khrushchev.
His annexation by Moscow was not recognized by the international community and Ukraine demanded his return.
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Current situation
US officials said Russia has deployed 110,000 troops along the border with Ukraine, but intelligence assessments have not determined whether the Russian president’s plans are to invade.
They noted that Russia is on track to amass a force of some 150,000 troops for a full-scale invasion in mid-February.
This could take the capital Kiev in 48 hours, in an operation that could kill up to 50,000 civilians, 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 10,000 Russian soldiers, unleashing a wave of up to five million refugees, intelligence officials added.
In addition to the potential human cost, Ukraine fears further damage to its battered economy.
Russia is seeking assurances from NATO that Ukraine will not join the alliance and wants the North Atlantic bloc to withdraw its forces from Eastern European member states.
“Apocalyptic predictions”
Moscow denies it intends to invade Ukraine, and a Kiev presidential adviser said the chances of a diplomatic solution are “substantially greater than the threat of further escalation.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sought to defuse tensions by saying on Twitter: “Don’t believe doomsday predictions. Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development.”
French President Emmanuel Macron, who holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU), visited Moscow on Monday and will go to Kiev on Tuesday to try to lower tensions.
Macron-Putin meeting
Macron proposed to Putin “build concrete security guarantees” for all the states involved in the Ukrainian crisis.
“President Putin assured me of his willingness to participate in this process and his willingness to maintain the stability and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” Macron added during a joint press conference after more than five hours of talks with the Russian leader.
While the Russian president underlined his disagreements with NATO, the French president summarized his objectives: “short-term military stability and that the dialogue between Russia, the United States and the Europeans continue to find solutions for the security of all” .
In this sense, Macron accepted, as Putin suggested, that “there is no security for Europeans if there is no security for Russia”.
But at the same time, he reminded the Russian president that the Baltic countries and bordering European countries had “the same fears” of security as those in Russia.
“It is necessary to rebuild these concrete solutions together, since we live on both sides of common borders,” advocated the French president.
Macron promised to “intensify contacts” with all his partners to “build new solutions.” “We have outlined some pathways in our meeting,” he added.
“We will speak again in a few days…and I am sure that we will reach a result. It is not easy, but I am sure of it”, he concluded.
Putin estimated that some proposals from his French counterpart to de-escalate tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine can bring progress and that, on his part, he will do “everything possible” to reach “compromises.”
“Some of his ideas, his proposals … are possible to lay the foundation for future progress,” Putin said, referring to Macron at a joint news conference after the meeting.
“For our part, we will do everything possible to find compromises that satisfy everyone,” he added, assuring that neither wants a war between Russia and NATO that “would have no winner.”
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However, the Russian president again accused NATO of having expanded in the last thirty years to the point of threatening Russia.
“They try to calm us down with claims that NATO is a peaceful and defensive organization,” he said, citing “Iraq, Libya, Belgrade” as counterexamples.
He also denounced again the military aid that Western countries provide to Ukraine.
On the other hand, Putin criticized the West’s refusal to accept his main demands.
These include the end of NATO’s enlargement policy, the commitment not to deploy weapons near Russian borders and the withdrawal of military troops from the Alliance until the 1997 borders, that is, before the organization welcomed into its sine former members of the Soviet bloc. (I)
Source: Eluniverso
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