Coffee is the crop most susceptible to high temperatures.
The regions of the world suitable for growing coffee, cashews and avocados will change dramatically as the world warms due to climate change, according to a new study.
The main coffee growing areas globally -Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam and Colombia- will “dramatically decline” by around 50% by 2050.
Areas suitable for cashews and avocados will increase, but most will be far from current production sites.
The authors point out that they should be done increased efforts to help farmers adapt to these changes.
Coffee is one of the most important crops in the world, not only as a key beverage, but also as a livelihood for millions of small farmers.
And thanks to growing consumer preferences in wealthier countries, the demand for avocados and cashews has increased substantially in recent decades.
While the threat of climate change to coffee has been well documented in recent years, there is little information on how rising temperatures will affect avocados and cashews.
The study authors looked at how rising temperatures and changing precipitation rates will affect the three crops. in the next 30 years.
The researchers also incorporated, for the first time, information on soil characteristics.
“drastic” reduction
Coffee is the crop most susceptible to high temperatures. In those countries that account for most of the world’s production of Arabica, the dominant coffee variety, the suitability for cultivation will be cut in half by 2050, a “drastic” decline, according to the report.
Some key areas will see a bigger impact. In the lowest modeled global temperature rise scenario, there would be a 76% reduction in the most suitable areas for Brazilian coffee. In Colombia it would be reduced by 63%.
Some regions at the northern and southern ends of current growing areas will become more suitable, including areas in Argentina, South Africa, China and New Zealand, among others.
But this does not mean that these new regions can easily replace current growing areas.
“The key message for those in the major producing regions today is that agricultural systems must adapt to changing conditions”, said the lead author of the study, Roman Grüter, of the Zurich University of Applied Sciences, in Switzerland.
“If coffee is already being grown in a new area where it is possible to do so with some management options, this production could be easier or expanded, but this does not mean that they will be perfect coffee growing regions in 10 years or more.”
In the case of cashews, the picture is different. Overall, the areas of the world that are highly suitable for cultivation will increase by 17%.
However, in some of the countries that currently depend on these chestnuts as a key cash crop, the news is not good. There will be a significant loss of suitable areas in India, while Benin will lose more than half of its suitable areas under the lowest modeled temperature rise.
For avocados, the picture is also complicated, especially in the main producing countries.
Mexico, the world’s largest producer, will see a large increase in suitable land, over 80%. But nevertheless, Peru -another large producer- will lose about half of its suitable areas under the same climate model.
While rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns may make some areas more suitable, the authors are concerned that growing these crops in new regions could lead to more deforestation or an increase in invasive species.
“In regions that could become more suitable for those crops, it is important to make sure there are no negative environmental impacts such as deforestation,” said Roman Grüter.
“In all these changes, the stakeholders, the local communities, have to be involved in these change processes. It should be a really participatory process.”
the sicilian experience
A temperature rise of around 1°C over the past 30 years has prompted Sicilian farmers to plant a range of new crops suited to warmer conditions.
One of them is Andrea Passanisi, who grows avocados near Mount Etna. This change has been very successful for him.
However, as temperatures continue to rise, growing conditions will become more difficult.
“The real climate change here is in the seasons”, Passanisi told the BBC.
“Before it was cold in November and December, now this happens in January or February, and that is not good for avocados.”
Increasing levels of drought and torrential rains are also challenging farmers.
“If you grow on land that is not suitable for avocado, it will not go well for you,” said the Sicilian producer.
“In our case we will continue to grow, since we have good land, but we will not have as much fruit.”
While changing temperatures may seem like bad news for today’s growers of these crops, there are actions that can be taken to reduce the impact of climate change.
“It is possible that in some regions where avocados are currently grown, the use of plant genetic variability can help”, said Joaquín Guillermo Ramírez Gil, from the National University of Colombia, who was not involved in the study.
“This species has three ‘races’ with different geographical origins, which makes it quite ‘plastic’ to adapt to different climatic conditions,” he added.
“There are also local adaptations and new management alternatives such as the use of biostimulants and nanotechnology-based products to reduce stress due to extreme weather conditions.”
Paul is a talented author and journalist with a passion for entertainment and general news. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he has established herself as a respected voice in the industry.
