Russia-Ukraine: how will we know if a war has started?

The whole world is trying to guess the intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.

The United States is withdrawing staff from its embassy as fears of possible conflict grow. But one wonders if perhaps it has already started.

The risk of an all-out war between Russia and the US dominates the headlines.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that his country rejects Russia’s demand for a veto on Ukraine’s NATO entry, but added that Russia has been offered “a path diplomat forward”.

All the obvious questions are being asked. Will Russia attack? Is President Vladimir Putin convinced of war no matter what happens? Or can diplomacy ensure peace?

We cannot read President Putin’s mind.

So here’s another question: how will we know, if it happens, when hostilities start?

Tanks rolling, rockets flying

The answer seems obvious

Clearly concentrated Russian tank formations crossing Ukraine’s borders, or a massive rocket bombardment or airstrikes against Ukrainian positions would mark a drastic escalation for the crisis and a shift to a new phase of the conflict.

The first warnings will come from the Ukrainian military itself, but Western intelligence-gathering aircraft and satellites could warn of preparations for a potential offensive.

There will likely be signs of an imminent attack, says Michael Kofman, an expert on Russian military forces at the US Center for Naval Analyses.

Among them is “troop training,” he says, since much of what has been deployed is heavy equipment rather than the soldiers themselves. Other signs would be “the dispersion of forces, the arrival of logistical and support elements, and a change in fixed and rotary wing aviation.”

But the question can also be answered in another way and for this we need to step back and see the Russian campaign against Ukraine as a whole.

We need to see all the tools that Moscow has available and assess how they are being used. In this light, when you ask “how will we know if the conflict has started?” the question could be that maybe it has already started.

Hostilities have been going on for a few years.

military pressure

Let’s start from where we are.

Russia already occupies Crimea, a part of Ukraine, and provides tactical assistance to anti-Kiev rebels in the Donbas region.

In fact, it was the intervention of Russian armored and mechanized units against Ukrainian forces in 2014 that prevented the defeat of the pro-Russian rebels.

Sporadic fighting has continued ever since. All sides reportedly support a peace effort there, but little progress has been made.

Threat of use of force

Beyond this pressure is also the threat of employing overwhelming military force.

The buildup of Russian combat formations around the borders with Ukraine is extraordinary. This includes a significant deployment of forces to Belarus, which also shares borders with Ukraine, which may provide a closer entry point for an assault on the capital, Kiev.

Where are the Russian troops positioned?

Russian spokesmen refer to this buildup as a non-threatening exercise. But because of the scale, the nature of deployed units, and the gradual arrival of supplies and other “enablers,” it is suggested that this is much more than routine maneuvers.

Analysts have been tracking the buildup using civilian satellite photos. Numerous smartphone videos have appeared online showing trains with equipment heading towards Ukraine or Belarus. And evaluations of social media posts, correlated with units seen in motion, give impressive insight into what’s going on.

Regardless of what Moscow says, Ukraine and its Western friends have every reason to be concerned.

Sharing the history of Moscow

Another tool available to Moscow is an attempt to control and direct the narrative.

On the one hand, Russia says that it is not preparing for war, although it very much sounds like it is. But, just as importantly, it has a story to tell, a narrative, according to which Russia itself is being threatened and Ukraine is far from being the victim.

That is the basis of documents that were given to the US seeking to stop and somehow reverse the expansion of NATO and create a new sphere of influence for Moscow.

While some aspects of the Russian proposals, such as holding talks on strategic and weapons systems, are widely seen as a good idea, NATO expansion is unlikely to change, and Russia surely knows this.

But the narrative also has another purpose. It is the story Russia is telling to try to shape the way the entire Ukraine crisis is discussed, not just by Western governments or their own citizens, but by you and me, who read and write this analysis.

According to all fair and independent analysis, Russia is preparing for war against Ukraine, regardless of what its official spokesmen say.

Subversion

There are other possibilities available for Russia as well. Cyber ​​attacks and subversion, for example.

Ukraine has certainly been subject to the former. A little over a week ago a number of government sites were affected despite the fact that there was no clarity on the origin of the attacks.

More recently, the British government claimed to have evidence that Moscow has selected individuals to form a new government in Kiev. Beyond the suspicions there has been no convincing public evidence confirming Moscow’s influence in such activities.

Michael Kofman says the cyber element could play a significant role in any Russian attack, because it can decimate critical infrastructure and disrupt Ukrainian abilities to coordinate a military effort.

Blurred lines between peace and war

When Russia annexed Crimea, we heard a lot about “hybrid or gray area warfare” and the alleged denial of the operation, which involved men in uniform but without military insignia.

But there was no doubt about who those soldiers were. And Crimea was captured with classical military force, rather than esoteric deception.

What is currently happening is the foundation of the “grey zone war”: the blurring of the lines between war and peace.

This is not how we usually see things in the West.

But the Russian military has articulated a sophisticated doctrine that sees war and peace as a continuum in which different tools are used at different stages, sometimes in sequence, sometimes in tandem, albeit with the same strategic goal.

And that is why the conflict has actually already broken out. The only question is how far President Putin is willing to go within this “grey zone” continuity.