Japan, recalls the sociologist, is a volcanic country surrounded by sea, with mountains and marked seasons.
Living with the possibility of an impending natural disaster is part of everyday life for the Japanese.
They are always ready, as happened in the early hours of last Sunday, January 16, when several tsunami alerts were triggered after the eruption of an underwater volcano in Tonga, an archipelago in the Pacific Ocean.
At around 00:15 Tokyo time, smartphones beeped the warning, and in coastal cities, sirens began warning of the possible need to evacuate homes for higher ground to protect themselves from the storms. waves estimated at 1 meter high.
Hours later, the alert was deactivated. But it will not be the last in the Japanese archipelago, historically vulnerable to natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions due to its geographical position in the Pacific Ring of Fire, an area of geological instability.
Natural disasters are studied in depth by scientists and, to a certain extent, expected by those who live in the island country, as if the next catastrophe could strike at any moment.
“Japan, known as the land of disasters, is one of the most disaster-prone territories in the world. From earthquakes to tsunamis and typhoons, natural phenomena are embedded in the country’s history, culture and consciousness,” Robin Takashi Lewis, director of the Hakuba Prefecture-based Social Innovation Japan incubator, tells the BBC. from Nagano.
“Thus, over the centuries, Japan has accumulated knowledge to deal with all kinds of disasters. In recent decades, a Japanese concept has stood out internationally: jijo, kyojo y kojo”, says this social entrepreneur, who was a consultant for the Tokyo Disaster Risk Management Hub, a World Bank initiative.
Jijo, says Lewis, refers to self-protection, that is, protecting yourself and your family.
Kyojo can be translated as mutual aid and indicates the importance of community support, solidarity.
Kojo, in turn, means the assistance of public authorities, including the government, firefighters, doctors, and police forces, among others.
“While the risk of disaster is always present, that doesn’t mean we live our lives in fear,” he says.
“What makes the difference is being prepared for when these things happen.”
prepare for the worst
Being prepared “when these things happen” indicates that the question is not if it will happen, but when it will happen.
Several earthquakes have affected Japan in the last century. Among the most serious are the Tohoku earthquake, of magnitude 9, which triggered a gigantic tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear accident on March 11, 2011.
The Kobe earthquake, known as Hanshin-Awaji, lasted seconds and left thousands dead and injured on January 17, 1995.
The Kanto earthquake destroyed Tokyo and other cities, causing 140,000 deaths on September 1, 1923, which became the archipelago’s official disaster prevention day.
“Past natural disasters have become milestones in memory in the respective regions, to remember the victims and also to provide an opportunity to review disaster preparedness on a daily basis,” explains sociologist Kaori Muto of the University of Tokyo. .
Each Japanese city usually advises residents about disasters, indicating what to do in emergency situations, where to take shelter and what to bring (a kit prepared with first aid items, a flashlight, water and non-perishable food, toilet paper, a change of clothes and, in times of pandemic, a mask and alcohol gel ).
Checking escape routes near home and work is also recommended.
“These activities are also mental training to prevent people from being caught off guard when disaster strikes,” adds Muto, who led the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s volunteer mission after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.
After that tragedy, a panel of experts began investigations to assess the impacts of super earthquakes and tsunamis.
At the end of 2021, the government published two such studies.
One estimated 199,000 dead and 220 buildings destroyed if a magnitude 9.1 earthquake hits the Japan Trench, hitting the Tohoku and Hokkaido regions.
The Japan Trench is an ocean trench in the Pacific Ring of Fire located northeast of the Japan archipelago.
The second study estimated up to 100,000 dead if a 9.3 earthquake spreads to the Chishima Trench, which could cause waves of more than 20 meters in eastern Hokkaido.
predict the unpredictable
Living with the possibility of a tragedy also made Japan bet on developing technologies to monitor tremors, reinforce building structures and improve drills, warning systems and awareness campaigns to inform the population.
Since the 1970s, for example, the Tokai mega-earthquake, which affected Aichi, Gifu, Mie and Shizuoka prefectures on the Nankai fault, had been expected.
The area has had major earthquakes in the past. In 1976, seismologist Katsuhiko Ishibashi published the theory that earthquake after earthquake would cause instability by producing strong tremors at intervals of 100 to 150 years.
At least nine strong earthquakes have been documented in the region in the past 1,500 years, says geologist Takuya Nishimura of Kyoto University’s Disaster Prevention Research Institute. The last one was in 1946.
“It’s not an urban legend,” says Nishimura.
The thesis even inspired a law of special measures for super earthquakes, approved by the Japanese government in 1978, with research committees to estimate the impact of a new earthquake.
“However, it has been more than 75 years since the last earthquakes in the Nankai fault area. Now many scientists refute the Tokai segment hypothesis and consider that the next mega-earthquake would rupture an entire part along the Nankai Trench”, Nishimura points out.
In the worst case scenario, a 2019 study highlighted, an intensity 7 tremor (the maximum on the Japanese scale) would trigger a tsunami up to 14 meters high and cause 436,000 deaths, affecting regions such as Tokai, Kansai and Shikoku.
The data is not always as accurate as it is believed.
“To predict an earthquake, we need to predict where, when and how it occurs. Over the last 50 years, we have advanced the where and the how. But there is a consensus among researchers that it is impossible to predict when.”
Expect the best
Living with the uncertainty of disaster, say Robin Takashi Lewis and Kaori Muto, does not mean being afraid all the time.
“The idea that a mega earthquake or tsunami could hit us at any moment is nebulous, but Japanese people, myself included, don’t always live in fear,” says Muto.
Japan, recalls the sociologist, is a volcanic country surrounded by the sea, with mountains and marked seasons -and “3,000 wonderful hot springs that help Japanese workaholics to relax,” she jokes.
This would have fostered a unique relationship with natural conditions that escape human actions.
“The Japanese benefit immensely from nature, but they also have a strong sense of respect and resignation that they cannot go against nature. I don’t think we take it for granted that tomorrow will be a day of peace. I think a lot of us think we should live one day at a time.”
Immigrants, however, may find this philosophy strange.
“For us Brazilians, living with the possibility that one day Mount Fuji will erupt and the ground will turn into a sea of lava can be terrifying,” says psychologist Carine Sayuri Goto, who lives in Yamagata.
“That’s because our reference is Brazil, where families die because of the rains, as we recently saw in Rio and Minas Gerais, a tragedy that repeats itself from time to time.”
According to Goto, the uncertainty that can anguish Brazilians in the archipelago raises another fundamental issue, which is the prospect of the future.
“If an earthquake or tsunami occurs or is alerted, many may think: what am I doing here, why did I choose to live here? For many it was the search for a better life, a perspective that perhaps was not available in Brazil. If the future disappears due to a natural disaster, how does life continue?
That is where the importance of public policies in different areas comes in, he highlights, to help people face these situations -and overcome them-, without forgetting them.
“You have to remember what has already happened and consider what can still happen. And remember that it is possible to rebuild from a disaster, that there is hope.”
Living in Japan for more than 30 years, the economist Miguel Kamiunten, from the Catholic University of Brasilia in Tokyo, has already experienced about 30 tremors and tidal waves, but he never got used to the proximity of disasters.
He seeks information and has put together a personal kit with the help of a yellow book that the Tokyo metropolitan government sent to citizens at the end of 2019, but he does not consider himself as prepared for this type of unforeseen event as he would like.
Every time an alert sounds, he remembers his family in Brazil and wonders “is it time to go back?”
Paul is a talented author and journalist with a passion for entertainment and general news. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he has established herself as a respected voice in the industry.
