Russia’s threat in Venezuela and Cuba wants the US to take the bait, according to experts

The threat of Russian military deployment in Cuba Y Venezuela “is not credible” and the only thing it intends is to distract attention from the crisis in Ukraine so that U.S take the bait and react, say experts.

“I don’t want to confirm anything or rule it out.” This phrase by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in response to a question from the RTVI television channel about whether he plans a military deployment in Venezuela or Cuba set off alarms in a context of maximum tension due to the thousands of Russian soldiers stationed on the border with Ukraine, and that the West believes that they are to invade the country.

It’s a “bluff,” said White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. But “if Russia moved in that direction, we would deal with the issue decisively,” he warned. Little more. Americans prefer not to talk about it.

The governments of Venezuela and Cuba maintain a terrible relationship with the United States, which considers them authoritarian regimes. Nothing to do with the one they maintain with Russia.

The Russian comment “is intended to stir us all up and we cannot fall for that ruse. It is a provocation, a bluff designed to generate a reaction”, declared Juan Cruz, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Cruz was in charge of Latin America and the Caribbean at the White House under President Donald Trump.

“The threat is not credible,” agreed Evan Ellis, professor of Latin American studies at the US Army War College’s Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Russia lacks the ability to project and sustain militarily significant forces in the hemisphere. It also does not have the necessary funds” due to the cost of its mobilization on the Ukrainian border and the sanctions that Americans and Europeans would impose if it invades that country, he added.

“They cannot afford that luxury, not even through their instrument, the Wagner Group,” a private military organization, Cruz points out. His only interest “is to put a finger in the eye of the gringos.”

Chavismo, your ally

Russia is the main supplier of weapons to the Chavista regime in Venezuela, explains Rocío San Miguel, director of the Venezuelan NGO Control Ciudadano, which specializes in national security issues.

The Defense Minister of the Chavista regime, Vladimir Padrino López, commented that “Russia is showing the possibility of deepening bilateral military cooperation relations.”

According to San Miguel, “there is something that is going on under the table”: the training of Russian security companies for the Venezuelan armed forces. According to her, the illegitimate government of Nicolás Maduro is betting on a “growing” Russian military presence.

In 2018, Moscow sent two nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela in support of Maduro, who spoke Thursday with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Since he came to power, more than 20 years ago, Putin has tried to recover some of the Soviet power of yesteryear “and countries like Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba have served him very well for that purpose because they have strengthened their ties” with Moscow, says Venezuelan Giovanna by Michelle, an expert in international affairs.

The secrecy of Cuba

Silence prevails in Cuba. “The Cubans don’t want to fuss with the gringos,” says Cruz.

The Russians know well that “any military deployment would have to be negotiated with the Cuban side and that Cuba would respond taking into account the circumstances,” considers Carlos Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat and academic.

Because it is a hypothetical situation, “the Cuban government is not obliged to respond, nor would it be convenient to do so,” he adds.

On everyone’s mind is the crisis of 1962, when the United States and the then Soviet Union came to the brink of nuclear war after Moscow deployed ballistic missiles in Cuba.

The truth is that now the only foreign country with troops in Cuba is the United States, at the Guantánamo Naval Base, Alzugaray recalls.

If a Russian deployment were to take place, the US reaction “would be more like the 1980s than the 1960s,” without a direct confrontation, Cruz estimates for his part.

The US military is bound to take threats from a nuclear-capable state with hostile intent toward Washington like Russia seriously, “but it is doubtful that even Vice Chancellor Ryabkov expected his threat to be taken seriously,” Evan Ellis concluded.