Is COVID receding in the US? The data paints an encouraging scenario

The new cases of coronavirus are falling in the areas of U.S hardest hit by the fast-spreading omicron variant, according to a Reuters analysis of public health data, offering an early indication that the virus may once again be in retreat.

COVID-19 infections are down in 19 states plus Washington DC and Puerto Rico, an analysis of last week through Thursday compared to the week before showed.

In the Northeast, which saw some of the highest caseloads during the latest surge, infections are down 40% last week from the week before.

“It certainly bodes well for us in terms of the trajectory of omicron,” said Wafaa El-Sadr, a professor of epidemiology and medicine at Columbia University in New York City.

The drop was more modest nationally, with new reported cases of COVID-19 down 7% over the same period, according to the Reuters tally, while omicron rose in other parts of the country.

COVID-19 data is often a few days behind the real state of things.

In the Midwest, cases are up 11% in the last seven days compared to the previous week, and they’re up 2% in the South, though the rise has slowed considerably in recent weeks. Western states saw a 3% week-on-week drop in new infections, according to the tally.

Nationwide, new cases are averaging 738,000 a day, which is still high, down from the January 15 high of 805,000.

Deaths, which typically lag around three weeks behind new infections and occur mostly among the unvaccinated, are averaging more than 2,000 a day, up 50% from the beginning of the month.

That is the highest average number of COVID-19 deaths since the end of September, but lower than the record 3,300 lives lost per day in January 2021.

COVID hospitalizations, also a lagging indicator, set a record Thursday at 152,746, according to the Reuters tally, but have shown signs of stabilizing at around 150,000 over the past week.