COVID-19: experts estimate that up to 300,000 per omicron could die in the US

Although the variant omicron can cause less severe illness, the number of deaths in U.S is on the rise, and experts predict that an additional 50,000 to 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 once the tide subsides in the spring.

The seven-day average rate of new COVID-19 deaths in the United States has been rising since mid-November, reaching nearly 1,700 on January 17, still below the January 2021 peak of 3,300.

COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes began to rise slightly two weeks ago, though at a rate ten times slower than last year, before most residents got vaccinated.

Despite indications that omicron causes milder illness among most patients, the unprecedented spread of the infection across the country, with cases still on the rise in many states, means that many vulnerable people will become sick from severe form.

If the upper end of the projections is reached, total deaths from COVID-19 in the United States would top 1 million by early spring.

“A lot of people are going to continue to die because of the degree of omicron transmission,” said University of South Florida epidemiologist Jason Salemi. “Unfortunately, the situation is going to get worse before it gets better.”

Morgues are running out of space in Johnson County, Kansas, said Dr. Sanmi Areola, director of the health department. More than 30 residents, mostly unvaccinated, have died in the county this year.

But the notion that a variant, usually less serious, could continue to claim thousands of lives is difficult for health experts to convey. It has been difficult to see how a small percentage of a very large number of infections can lead to a large number of deaths.

“Overall, there are going to be more people sick even though you, as an individual, are less likely to get sick,” said Katriona Shea, of Pennsylvania State University and co-leader of a team bringing together various models of pandemic behavior and sharing insights. screenings with the White House.

The wave of deaths moving toward the United States will peak in late January or early February, according to Shea. By early February, weekly deaths could equal or exceed the delta variant’s peak, and may even break the previous record for deaths in the country from last year.