Russian officials are meeting this week with representatives of the United States and its NATO allies to negotiate Moscow’s demands that the West provide security guarantees and address Western concerns about the recent movement of Russian troops near Ukraine.
Russian and US negotiators are scheduled to begin a round of talks in Geneva on Monday that will be followed by talks between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels and a meeting in Vienna of the Security Organization. and Cooperation in Europe during the week.
Here’s a look at the topics on the agenda and the main discrepancies:
Fear of a Russian invasion
The mobilization of Russian troops and equipment on the border near Ukraine has raised concerns in Kiev and the West that Moscow is preparing an invasion.
Moscow has denied having that intention, accusing the Ukrainian authorities of planning an offensive to regain territories in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists, accusations Ukraine rejects.
US President Joe Biden twice last month addressed the mobilization of Russian troops with Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning that Moscow would face “grave consequences”, such as unprecedented economic and financial sanctions, if it attacked. to your neighbor.
Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and has backed the separatist rebellion that began that year in the east of the country, where more than 14,000 people have died in seven years of fighting. The West has responded with sanctions that have hit the Russian economy but have failed to persuade Moscow to change course.
Russian demands for security
Putin has described the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO and the alliance deploying weapons in the country as a “red line” for Moscow. The Kremlin has demanded that Washington and its allies agree to exclude Ukraine, Georgia and any other ex-Soviet nation from NATO expansions.
Moscow has also demanded that the United States and its allies commit not to deploy weapons or carry out military activities in Ukraine and other former Soviet nations.
The Kremlin has presented a draft security treaty between Moscow and Washington and a principle agreement between Russia and NATO as a starting point for this week’s negotiations. The documents would oblige the alliance not to deploy troops to areas where they were not present in 1997, before NATO incorporated former Soviet bloc countries and former Soviet republics.
Moscow’s proposals also include freezing Russian military ship and bomber patrols near US borders, and vice versa. In addition, they call for efforts to reduce the risk of incidents between Russian and NATO aircraft and ships, especially in the Baltic and Black Seas, a reduction in the scale of military maneuvers, more transparency and other measures to increase confidence.
Reaction of the United States and NATO
The United States and its allies have flatly rejected the request that NATO not admit Ukraine or any other new members, stressing that a basic principle of the alliance is that membership is open to any eligible country, and that no external country has veto power.
Although Ukraine and Georgia are not yet ready to join NATO and have little chance of being invited anytime soon, Western allies insist that the doors of the alliance must remain open to them. NATO promised in 2008 that it would accept the two countries at some point, although it has not offered a concrete plan for their incorporation.
Although the allies firmly refused to freeze NATO expansion, Washington and NATO said they were willing to talk about arms control, confidence-building measures, more transparency and risk reduction if Russia adopts a constructive attitude.
US officials said they were open to talks on restricting possible future offensive missile deployments in Ukraine and limiting US and NATO military exercises in Eastern Europe if Russia is willing to back down in Ukraine.
At the same time, the White House urged Russia to help create a positive environment for the talks by withdrawing its troops from areas close to Ukraine. Moscow has rejected that proposal and stated that it can deploy its forces if it deems it necessary on its own territory. He has also described the mobilization as a response to “hostile” NATO movements.
Time limits
Putin has described the negotiations with the United States as something “positive”, although he has said that he wants quick results and warned the West not to try to bury the Russian demands with “inconsequential talk.”
When asked at a press conference last month if he could guarantee that Russia would not invade Ukraine, Putin responded angrily, saying that the West “must give us guarantees and give them immediately, now.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who leads the Russian delegation in the security talks, described as “absolutely essential” this demand for guarantees that NATO will not expand to Ukraine and other former Soviet countries and warned that if the United States is refuses to approach her, it would make it useless to continue the conversations.
“We go there not with an outstretched hand, but with a precisely formulated task that we must solve under conditions we have set,” Ryabkov said. Russia will not make concessions under threats and pressure, he warned, and talks could end after the first round if the United States and its allies do not cooperate.
The Kremlin’s demanding demands, combined with an urgency for quick results, have fueled US suspicions that Moscow might make unrealistic requests only to have the talks fail and then use it as a pretext for aggressive action. Russian diplomats have rejected that accusation.
Technical-military options
Although Moscow has denied having plans to attack Ukraine, Putin has warned that he could be forced to take unspecified “technical-military measures” if the West refuses to meet his security demands.
He did not go into details, beyond saying that the Russian response in that case “could be diverse” and “will depend on what proposals our military experts give me.”
Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said Putin had told Biden that Russia would act just as the United States would have if it had seen offensive weapons deployed along its border.
Putin has pointed out that the new Zircon hypersonic cruise missile could provide strike potential with unprecedented precision if fitted on naval vessels deployed in neutral waters. The launch of a salvo of Zircon missiles in late December completed testing of the new weapon, which Putin says flies at nine times the speed of sound and has a range of more than 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) away.
Although he expressed concern that NATO could use Ukrainian territory to deploy missiles capable of reaching Moscow in just five minutes, Putin noted that the Zircon would give Russia a similar capability.
“It would also take just five minutes to reach those who gave the orders,” Putin said.
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