Climate change will cause an increase in kidney stone patients

Rising temperatures due to climate change will cause an increase in kidney stone cases in the next seven decades, even as measures are put in place to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

This is warned by a study carried out by researchers from the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (United States) published today in the journal Scientific Reports.

The study assures that, although attempts are made to mitigate climate change, the rebound in cases is unstoppable, but it will be much more pronounced if measures are not taken.

In the best of scenarios, the increase in kidney stones will cost the US state health system about $ 57 million (50.3 million euros) and at worst, if nothing is done to stop global warming, the cost will be $ 99 million (87.3 million euros), according to the study.

Although it is impossible to predict with certainty how future policies will slow or accelerate greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, and to know exactly what future daily temperatures will be, our analysis suggests that a warming planet is likely to cause an increase in greenhouse gases. cases in health care systems, ”cautions pediatric urologist and lead study author Gregory E. Tasian.

Kidney stones (kidney stones) are mineral deposits that form in the urine and cause pain as they pass through the urinary tract.

In the last 20 years the incidence has increased especially among women and adolescents.

Previous research has shown that high ambient temperatures raise the risk of developing kidney stones, but no studies have accurately calculated how climate change will affect this disease in the future.

To do so, the researchers created a model to estimate the impact of heat on future kidney stone presentations in South Carolina, a region in the southeastern United States with a high incidence of kidney stones.

Researchers collected data for historical mean daily temperatures and humidity across the state and for kidney stone cases in South Carolina from 1997 to 2014 to forecast increased incidence and associated costs through 2089.

The first climate change scenario represents an “intermediate” future, with lower emissions energy sources, the use of carbon capture technology, CO2 emission prices and an expansion of forest land from the present to 2100, and an increase in temperatures of 2.3 degrees Celsius.

The second scenario depicted a future with unbridled greenhouse gas emissions, with a 2.3 ° C increase in mean temperature per 5-year period from 2010-2014 to 2085-2089, and a 3.6 ° C increase.

Based on these data, they determined that by 2089 kidney stones due to heat would increase throughout the State by 2.2% in the first scenario and 3.9% in the second.

Given that the average cost per patient is about US $ 9,000 (7,950 euros), the researchers predicted that from 2025 to 2089, the total amount attributable to this increase in kidney stones would be US $ 56.6 million (49.5 million euros) for the first scenario and US $ 99.4 million (87 million euros) for the second.

“As pediatric researchers, we have a duty to explore the burden of climate change on human health, as today’s children will experience this reality in the future,” concludes Tasian.