The Winners and Losers of China’s “Zero COVID” Strategy

The drama of a woman who had an abortion at eight months pregnant at the doors of a hospital and was not treated because her coronavirus test expired has called into question the strict rules antiCOVID in China.

In China, the country where the virus was first detected at the end of 2019, it maintains a “zero COVID” strategy that made it possible to quickly quell the epidemic, but this tactic implies a very high social and economic cost.

How does it work?

From the moment COVID-19 cases are detected, the authorities impose strict confinement measures and proceed to carry out massive and successive tests on the population.

This strategy implies that for two weeks the 13 million inhabitants of the metropolis of Xian, in northern China, have been confined after detecting only 150 cases.

People are prohibited from leaving their homes and if they are contact cases they can be transferred to quarantine centers, which are generally converted hotels.

Throughout the country, the use of a mask continues to be the norm in transport and in public places and a health pass is required to enter shopping centers and offices.

Does this policy work?

Based on official data, China managed to limit infections to 100,000 cases in two years, of which less than 5,000 died, a panorama that contrasts with the figures in the rest of the world.

For example, the United States surpassed the level of one million infections in 24 hours at the beginning of the week.

Life in the country has largely returned to normal, but authorities are vigilant, especially on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which will be held between February 4 and 20.

“We cannot prevent the emergence of individual cases locally, but we do have complete confidence in the ability to quickly eliminate sources of contagion,” said Liang Wannian, a senior health official in December.

Who are the losers?

Residents of confined areas have complained of lack of food and that access to hospitals is difficult.

An eight-month pregnant woman was denied entry to a Xian hospital as she did not have an anti-COVID test for less than 48 hours.

The abortion she suffered at the doors of the establishment generated a great controversy on social networks, which led the authorities to apologize to the patient and punish those responsible, something unusual in China.

With borders practically closed and airline tickets reaching exorbitant prices, many families have not seen each other for more than two years.

Although China was the only major economy that had growth in 2020, some sectors such as transport, tourism or hotels and restaurants still do not return to the level they had before the crisis.

At the local level, lockdown measures led to factory closures and disrupted supply chains.

Even when?

“China proved that a ‘zero COVID’ strategy can be maintained almost indefinitely,” noted epidemiologist Ben Cowling of the University of Hong Kong.

In practice, the country closed its borders in March 2020, minimizing the number of international flights and visas granted to foreign visitors.

With regard to Chinese citizens, the State stopped renewing passports, except in cases of imperative need.

But the end of travel abroad only affects a minority of the population.

The few critical voices about this government policy are accused of collusion with the foreigner.

In July, the prestigious virologist Zhang Wenhong suggested that we must “learn to live with the virus” and right after was the subject of research at his own university.

What if China dropped the restrictions?

Taking into account its overpopulation and the fact that the country has an insufficient hospital system, researchers from Peking University warned that the country could suffer a “colossal” level of contagion, if the restrictions were relaxed.

Ivan Hung, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, believes that a new generation of more effective vaccines against the delta and omicron variants could allow the worst to be avoided.

Until now, Beijing has vaccinated its population with formulas of national origin.

For the communist regime it would be problematic to convince its population to soften the measures and let the infections increase, in the face of the health chaos in the rest of the world, which the national media expose daily.

“The transition (to another type of health strategy) could be complicated as society has a habit of living with a low level of transmission of the virus,” observed researcher Thomas Hale, from the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom.