Revolt in Kazakhstan: what you need to know

New clashes broke out on Thursday in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s main city, following the arrival of Russian-led troops to help the government end the unrest that has already killed dozens and hundreds more.

What is happening in Kazakhstan and why?

Thousands of angry protesters have taken to the streets of Kazakhstan in recent days, it is the biggest crisis to shake the autocratic country in decades. The events are an obvious challenge to President Kasim-Yomart Tokaev, less than three years into his rule, and are destabilizing an already volatile region in which Russia and the United States compete for influence.

Videos posted online Wednesday show people breaking into the main government building in Almaty, the largest city, as protesters set fire to police vehicles, as well as the regional division of the ruling Nur Otan party.

The demonstrations were triggered by anger at the rise in fuel prices. They have escalated into protests that prompted the Kazakh government to seek help through a Russian-led military alliance and have turned violent, to the extent that police said on Thursday that dozens of protesters had been killed.

What do the nonconformists ask for?

As the protests have intensified, the demands of the protesters have increased in scope from demanding lower fuel prices to including broader political liberalization. Among the changes they seek is the direct election of Kazakhstan’s regional leaders, rather than the current presidential appointment system.

In short, they demand the departure of the political forces that have ruled the country without any significant opposition since independence from the Soviet Union was achieved in 1991.

Why are the unrest in Kazakhstan important to the region and the world?

Located between Russia and China, Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in the world, its territory is larger than Western Europe, although with a population of only 19 million inhabitants.

The recent protests are important because the country was until now seen as a pillar of political and economic stability in an unstable region, even though such stability is achieved through a repressive government that restricts dissent.

The mobilizations are also significant because Kazakhstan has been aligned with Russia, whose president, Vladimir Putin, sees the country (a kind of Russian simile in terms of its economic and political systems) as part of Russia’s sphere of influence.

For the Kremlin, the events represent another possible challenge to autocratic power in a neighboring country. This is the third uprising against an authoritarian and Kremlin-aligned nation, following pro-democracy protests in Ukraine in 2014 and in Belarus in 2020. Chaos threatens to undermine Moscow’s power in the region as Russia attempts assert its economic and geopolitical power in countries like Ukraine and Belarus.

The countries of the former Soviet Union are also closely watching the protests; the events in Kazakhstan could help give courage to opposing forces elsewhere.

Kazakhstan is also important to the United States, as it has become a significant country for American energy concerns, as Exxon Mobil and Chevron have invested tens of billions of dollars in western Kazakhstan, the region where the discontent began. this month.

Although it has close ties to Moscow, several consecutive Kazakh governments have also maintained close ties with the United States, and investment in oil is seen as a counterweight to Russian influence. The US government has long been less critical of post-Soviet authoritarianism in Kazakhstan than it is in Russia and Belarus.

How has the government responded to the protests?

The government has tried to quell the demonstrations by instituting a state of emergency and blocking social networking sites and chat applications, including Facebook, WhatsApp, Telegram and, for the first time, the Chinese application WeChat. Public protests without permission were already illegal. The government has given in to some of the protesters’ demands, firing the cabinet and announcing the possible dissolution of Parliament, which would result in new elections. However, his actions so far have failed to quell discontent.

Who are the main political actors in the country?

Less than three years ago, the then (elderly) president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, now 81, resigned. A former steel worker and leader of the Communist Party, who came to power in Kazakhstan in 1989, when it was still part of the Soviet Union. During his rule, he attracted huge investments from foreign energy companies to develop the nation’s oil reserves, which, at an estimated 30 billion barrels, are among the largest of all the former Soviet republics.

As the last surviving president in Central Asia to lead his country to independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, he handed over power in 2019 to Tokaev, the then Speaker of the Upper House of Parliament and who was also Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign affairs

Tokaev is widely perceived as Nazarbayev’s anointed successor, who until recently was thought to possess considerable power, holding the title of “Leader of the Nation” and holding the position of president of the country’s Security Council. However, the revolt could be a decisive break with his government.

Is Kazakhstan a democracy?

During his three-decade tenure, Nazarbayev won elections with nearly 100 percent of the vote each time, often after imprisoning political opponents and journalists who criticized him. Kazakhstan elected Tokaev in June 2019, but with mixed voting results in a tightly controlled vote marked by hundreds of protester arrests.

The election was denounced as unfair by observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The result and the heavy-handed police action against peaceful protesters at the time indicated that, although the country’s veteran leader had resigned the presidency, the system he established during his long tenure remained firmly in place. (I)