Venezuelan opposition faces 2022 with divisions that complicate any opportunity against the Nicolás Maduro regime

Venezuela ended 2021 without finding a way out of the political, social and economic crisis that has been going on for several years.

One of the factors is the difficult relationship between the main opposition actors, which continues to be led by Juan Guaidó, recognized as the president in charge by the United States, the European Union and several countries in the region. Although internally, the Nicolás Maduro regime maintains control with the support of the security forces.

The international recognition that Guaidó has gave him influence over several assets of the country abroad. What is now a matter of dispute is what to do with those resources. Julio Borges, one of the opposition figures who represented the interim government as commissioner for Foreign Relations, said in early December that the young politician has lost strength and the entire opposition must restructure.

Borge even affirmed: “There is no route, there is no unity and there is no strategy” and criticized the bureaucracy that had been formed in the interim government.

For Daniel Vargany, doctor in political science and professor at the Simón Bolívar University, this latest controversy remained on the air because Borges was a partner in everything that happens with the opposition. In addition, it is not known to what extent he is or is not close to negotiating factions of the Maduro government.

“There is one thing that is undeniable. The whole issue of the interim did not fail right now but in April 2019 (when Guaidó called for a failed military uprising) … Then he participates in negotiation processes and trust in the interim is already lost. However, he was exercising a public office for which he was elected in 2015. Once the election is made and a new Assembly is constituted in 2020, the issue of the interim office, both by right as de facto, it ceases to exist. What happens is that, in order to preserve some assets, the countries decide to maintain trust in Guaidó, but it is a trust that only they now have. Virtually no one is supporting it (internally) anymore, ”says Vargany.

For him another problem is that it is not known with certainty who within the opposition has their loyalty to this line or if they are part of negotiations with the regime, and if so, who has selfish economic interests.

Meanwhile, Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Political and Government Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University, comments that in 2021 the opposition was much more divided, not by coincidence, but rather that there was a strategy on the part of the Maduro government, that I had been working on it for a long time with negotiations.

Despite the fact that a survey of the perception of Guaidó and his interim government has not been carried out, for Alarcón this remains a “legal fiction” that fills the power vacuum created by not recognizing the legitimacy of the presidential elections of 2018.

However, the reality is that Maduro maintains control of the institutions and a monopoly on violence, regardless of whether or not other countries recognize the 2018 elections.

Alarcón also explains that being internationally recognized does not give the interim government the ability to exercise a single leadership in the opposition. One can see how in parallel one can have this existing while there are also other actors who exercise leadership in the opposition in general or in a part of the country.

“I believe that the interim government is still necessary,” says Alarcón, citing two reasons. The first is that in the absence of recognition of Maduro, someone must exercise ownership of assets and accounts that are abroad and that have been blocked from the Maduro government, and the second is that the international community cannot be talking to all opposition leaders but to channel all dialogue through one channel, including for a negotiation with the regime.

In addition, within the opposition, two groups more or less of the same weight can be observed, including those who prefer Guaidó to be there and others who do not recognize anyone as the leader of the opposition for various reasons (disappointed, tired, etc.). But, despite everything, Guaidó is the one who is most recognized as a leader above the others even though there is no consensus, according to Alarcón.

Vargany believes that after what happened in 2021, one of the first things to take into account in 2022 will be the vote in the state of Barinas -in the past a strong point of Chavismo-, which will be repeated after the November vote was annulled. after a rare process in which the ruling party was losing.

He also thinks that unless there is pressure from some countries, it will be in doubt that the dialogue in Mexico will resume, since there is no practical sense in a post-election year, although although a recall referendum could be activated, the possibility that it will take place At the moment it is low, since the Maduro government is more stable and would not have much at risk, at least the first semester. (I)