Energy inequality will widen the gap for poorer countries

A warmer planet will determine the type and amount of Energy we use. In the not too distant future, air conditioning is likely to become critical, while wealthy populations in temperate areas will save money by avoiding heating costs during the winter. But how will poor communities in hot places protect themselves from rising temperatures?

The last seven years have been the hottest on record. Heat waves have caused record temperatures around the world in places as distant as Japan and Northern Ireland.

As the planet warms, the deep divide between rich and poor will widen. Air conditioning is unlikely to keep up with global warming, forcing billions of the world’s poorest people to suffer from the heat without protection.

That is the conclusion of an important article published this Wednesday in the journal Nature by the Climate Impact Lab, a research consortium that studies the global economic impacts of climate change.

“Future impacts of climate change fall disproportionately on regions that are poorest today, exacerbating existing inequality,” warned Trevor Houser, co-director of the Climate Impact Lab.

While nine out of ten households in EE.UU. have air conditioning, this is a reality for only 5% of households in India. As climate change continues to intensify heat waves, cooling technology remains out of reach for more than half of the world’s population, according to research.

Electricity consumption in rich countries also increases on cold days. Fuel consumption increases by as much as 66% in rich regions during extreme temperatures, but there is virtually no increase in the poorest 20% of the population, reflecting the disparity in access to expensive technologies used by the rich.

By the end of the decade, energy demand in India and Nigeria is expected to increase by 145% and almost 2,100%, respectively. Warm low-income areas, including much of sub-Saharan Africa, are likely to remain poor until 2100, so they will not be able to stay cool through the most intense heat humanity has ever experienced.

The research is the latest piece of Climate Impact Lab’s largest work that brings together a comprehensive estimate of how much each metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted costs the global economy.

US policymakers have relied on similar estimates, called the social cost of carbon, to assess the benefits of climate-friendly regulation and laws in cost-benefit analyzes. The Biden Administration currently places this figure at around $ 50 per ton. Last year, the Climate Impact Lab found that the contribution to the social carbon cost of heat-related mortality alone could be as high as $ 37 a tonne.

The researchers found that emitting an extra ton of carbon dioxide today will help reduce future energy use by reducing the need for fuels. That values ​​the social cost of carbon for energy consumption of less than US $ 1 to US $ 3 of savings per ton.

In July, the Biden Administration promised to deliver 40% of the benefits of federal investments in clean energy and climate to disadvantaged communities. Climate Impact Lab says its report, which uses data and estimates from 146 countries over a 40-year period, should help policymakers define that group by focusing on the local impacts of climate change.

“Every additional ton of greenhouse gas has a measurable impact on society,” said Robert Kopp, co-director of the group. “Emissions remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, so improving our understanding of local climate damage will be essential to take the steps we need to prepare for future risks.”