Hope returns to end COVID-19 thanks to herd immunity

The arrival in a whirlwind of the omicron variant to the chaotic landscape of COVID-19 makes one dream again of the prospect of herd immunity, but experts warn that it is still too early to draw conclusions.

French Health Minister Olivier Veran dared to declare this weekend that “this fifth wave could be the last”, due to the blazing speed with which omicron, a highly contagious mutation of the coronavirus, is spreading. seems less dangerous.

An optimistic scenario, according to Alain Fischer, responsible for the vaccination campaign in France. “Perhaps we are witnessing a beginning of evolution towards a more banal virus, like many others that we already know,” he declared on Monday.

Natural immunity, together with the effect of vaccines, would cause the entry into a much less severe phase of the global pandemic.

“There is hope,” says epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet. “Sars-CoV-2 could join the other human coronaviruses that cause colds and sore throat every winter,” he explains.

“We are not close yet. We can foresee that new variants will appear, but our immunity will be strengthened over time, either by natural infection or with booster doses of the vaccine ”, he indicates.

But before that there will foreseeably “a high number of infections in the population”, highlighted on Sunday the director of the Israeli Ministry of Health, Nachman Ash.

New variant?

The risks to overburdened healthcare systems are high. Although more benign, the impact of omicron is yet to be determined. And if there are new variants, herd immunity may be clouded by more deaths.

“I continue to hope that the virus will eventually look like the other cold coronaviruses, perhaps in the next two years,” says Julian Tang, virologist and professor at the University of Leicester, quoted by the British organization Science Media Center.

“If we want to begin to learn the lessons of the recent past of this pandemic, the first thing to remember is that it is very unpredictable,” epidemiologist Antoine Flahault told AFP.

In his view, the concept of herd immunity is “purely theoretical”.

“It seems that immunity from vaccines protects effectively against severe forms of the disease, but not all vaccinated equally,” he explains.

“Naturally acquired immunity appears to also provide a kind of protection, particularly against severe forms, although nothing is entirely clear,” he adds.

Flahault, who currently heads the Institute for Global Health in Geneva, believes that all possibilities remain open, including a larger-than-anticipated impact from the omicron variant, or simply the emergence of new mutations.

“I am convinced that it will not be the last wave,” said Eric Caumes, former head of the infectious diseases service at La Pitié Salpêtrière hospital in Paris, on Sunday. “But maybe it will be the last with this intensity,” he says.