For the United States and China, a year to live in calm?

by James Stavridis

Despite all the tension and turmoil that has settled in the relationship between the United States and China, 2022 may turn out to be a small respite. For the next 10 months, President Xi Jinping has other matters to worry about.

More important than the disputes with the United States, next year there will be two national events: the Winter Olympics in February and the XX Congress of the Communist Party in mid-autumn. At the Beijing games, China will try to demonstrate its dominance of both the global spectacle and COVID-19. Most importantly, Xi will want a smooth process of preparing for the party congress, where he hopes to obtain another five-year term as leader, which would elevate him to the historic level of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.

Although the United States and China have disagreements on many fronts – human rights, territorial claims in the South China Sea, a dark cyber conflict, an accelerating naval arms race and trade discussions – next year will likely not be confrontational. And Washington will be distracted by the midterm elections, COVID mutations and sharp internal discord.

The United States should seize this year of quiet life and take the time to consider all aspects of its relationship with China.

The first step would be to finally publish the global strategy on China that the National Security Council staff have been preparing. Ideally, this should include a military component (providing for deterrence), a technology strategy (to plan for success in chip making, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing), diplomatic prescriptions (for example, efforts to unite states United, India, Japan and Australia in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad”, and to attract Europeans to the Pacific), a section of values ​​(human rights) and a creative plan of strategic communication. Uniting around this coherent strategy would allow the United States to better deal with China.

The lull in tensions could also be used to advance an effort both countries ultimately support: climate change mitigation. Although the US and China have not always agreed on the timing and methods of limiting emissions, ocean acidification, overfishing and the melting of the poles, they have at times joined forces to drag the rest of the world away. Next year would be a good time to support John Kerry’s energetic push for both nations to agree on concrete next steps.

A third good use of the pause would be to work with China in preparing for the next pandemic. The world is going to live with new variants of COVID (pi? Sigma? Tau? I’m Greek and I know the letters) for a long time. And given our overcrowded world, urban masses, and frenetic international travel, another pandemic is a certainty.

Finally, this could be a good year to resume trade, tariffs and equal access for companies to the Chinese and US markets. The talks started by the Administration of President Donald Trump never gained momentum, Trump’s tariffs are still in effect, Chinese purchases of American goods have not occurred, and the whole process seems to be adrift in the wide and empty sea. The two countries should try to consolidate what makes sense from the talks so far, and then work to move forward on more important trade issues. Our interlocking markets and businesses can serve as the basis for better communication.

From a military point of view, next year could be a reasonable time to help Taiwan strengthen its defenses, to become something of a porcupine, a spiny and indigestible entity that can deter China from using force to subdue. which they consider a “rebellious province”. This could include the sale of anti-ship weapons, smart mines and cyber tools by the United States, as well as small-scale exercises and training.

Naturally, the underlying conditions in this relationship pose challenges. But given the confluence of the Olympics and the 20th Party Congress, a small window of opportunity will open up. The imminent arrival in Beijing of Ambassador Nicholas Burns, a senior career diplomat (and former US ambassador to NATO), is auspicious. He can help ensure that the next year is dedicated to setting the conditions for better relationships.