The CDU has complied with forecasts. He has fulfilled the surveys. With the polls. He has complied with the favorite poster in the elections. Because Friedrich Merz’s formation has won the elections. He has won the federal elections in Germany. However, he has done it with a single ‘but’. With the ‘but’ that his victory is in a minority.
That you will need to agree to get to the majority in the Bundestag. That will need allies To reach those 316 representatives. And that, in addition, he has to do it with the sanitary cord to the extreme right, as they have said and promised in the campaign.
Because with them the numbers give them. Because if the CDU is approaching 30% of the votes, AFD’s ultra -right are almost 20. Yes, give. Ample. But not. Because they have said no. Because, a priori, there is an agreement to Leave out of all government to the ultra formation of Alice Weidel.
Great coalition against ultra -right
Thus, it is time to look at the third political force. There appear the social democrats. There appears the SPD. The protagonists of the Great fall of the German election day. It was seen coming. He feared a Olaf Scholz who has not been able to culminate the comeback to be, at least, second most voted party in federal elections.
They have lost about ten percentage points in terms of vote. They have governed to be third force. They have had a secondary but also determining role. Or, rather, more or less decisive. Because they also have that healthcare cord in mind, and they know that if so it has to be yes or yes with the CDU. It has to be yes or yes the so -called ‘great coalition’.
A formed between conservatives and social democrats. One that, seeing the threat of ultra -right in the Teuton country, and in the rest of Europe and almost also in the world, is the possible option For that sanitary cordon to the AFD. Add add up, but they may need another actor.
In the hands of the FDP and the BSW
They depend on the two minority parties in Liza in these elections. Because the FDP and BSW could have representation in the Bundestag. If so, the numbers do not give. If so, to enter these two formations, they need the greens.
They would need the fourth political force. Of a force that accumulates about 13% of the votes and that has really been close to social democrats. It is the most possible option, in case the FDP and BSW reach 5% and are in the camera.
The FDP option
Anyway, to leave the AFD out of play, the CDU must look at the SPD. Yes or yes. Being able to govern in the so -called great coalition depends on the FDP and BSW. Depends If these minority parties They add enough to enter or not in the Bundestag.
Because everything depends on them. Because with the greens the thing can be complicated before the decision of the CSU, part of the CDU coalition, to say ‘no’ to this formation. In the event that the FDP entersconservatives could choose to rely on the SPD and in them if they finally enter the camera.
5% earrings
If the answer is not, great coalition and nothing else. If the answer is that if they reach 5%, the CDU and the SPD will need another political actor who will presumably be the green. Something that, perhaps, would complicate and hinder the options to reach, as the conservative Merz wants, A rapid agreement to be government as soon as possible.
Three options are presented then. CDU plus SPD in large coalition if the FDP and BSW do not enter; If they enter, a fourth actor is needed. The CSU has the ‘no’ put for green, so negotiations can be long. So, CDU with SPD and the Greens … or CDU with SPD and FDP. These two options, yes, if conservatives and social democrats did not add the 316 representatives to be a majority in the Bundestag.
Source: Lasexta
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